Poker Math That Matters

and AQ+. Our equity with KJo against that range is
about 30%. So, when we get all the money in, we’ll
own 30% of that pot. The final all-in pot will be about
$200. And, 30% of $200 is $60. 12
2. If we subtract that from the amount we have to shove,
which is $92, we get $32.
3. We’re risking $32 to win $33. This is about x to win x,
so we need to have him fold 50% of the time. You can
check the work with the long equation we did before.
105
We can even take this a step further and find out what percentage
of hands he would have to reraise to make our shove +EV. He is
calling with about 4% of hands. What number times 50% equals
4?
0.50x = 4
x = 8
He would have to reraise with more than 8% of hands to make
our shove +EV.
So, you are now equipped to do a lot of work away from the
table examining semi-bluffs and have a quick way to estimate
how often they need to fold when you’re at the table. As you
work with more of these, you'll get very quick at this.
12
I would do this quickly by thinking about what 10% of $200 is and
then multiplying that times 3.