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94<br />
Take a second and think about that. The reason x / (x + y) works<br />
in both these situations is because it’s always a reward to risk<br />
ratio. We're risking a certain amount to win a certain amount.<br />
The caller always has to be good less often because by the time it<br />
gets to him, the pot is larger. Let’s examine Table 8.<br />
Table 8. Reward:Risk ratio at work.<br />
Ratio Considering Bluffing Considering Calling Must be Good ><br />
Risking x to win .5x Pot-Size Raise 67%<br />
Risking x to win .8x 1/2 Pot-Size Raise 55%<br />
Risking x to win x Pot Bet Never Happens 50%<br />
Risking x to win 1.5x 2/3 Pot Bet Call 2x Pot 40%<br />
Risking x to win 2x 1/2 Pot Bet Call Pot 33%<br />
Risking x to win 3x 1/3 Pot Bet Call 1/2 Pot 25%<br />
In this table, "x" will always represent the same amount. In our<br />
example, we were risking x to win exactly x. We must win more<br />
than 50% of the time. By the time the action got to the caller, he<br />
was risking x to win 2x. So, he must be good greater than 33%<br />
of the time. Notice, in hold'em, you will never have to risk x to<br />
win x when calling. This is because the pot is always larger than<br />
what you’ll have to call. This is even true preflop because of the<br />
blinds posted. If the pot is $1, and your opponent bets $9,000,<br />
you’ll be risking $9,000 to win $9,001.<br />
9,000 / (9,000 + 9,001)<br />
9,000 / 18,001 = 0.499<br />
Notice the two rows on the top of Table 8: a half-pot raise and a<br />
pot-size raise. Making a pot-size raise is much different than<br />
making a pot-size bet because you have to put a lot more money<br />
in the pot to offer your opponent 2:1. A pot-size raise is similar<br />
to making a bet that’s 2x pot since, in both cases, you’ll need<br />
your opponent to fold 67% of the time.
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