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Poker Math That Matters

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62<br />

We have a flush draw. The pot is $25. Our opponent has $24<br />

left in his stack, and we have him covered. He’s first to act and<br />

goes all-in. Do we call or fold? We can do this problem right at<br />

the table in just a couple seconds. Let’s look at our pot odds. He<br />

bet almost the pot. So, from memorizing our chart, we know<br />

we’ve got to be good about 33%. Now, how often will we win?<br />

We count our outs and see we have nine outs to win. Using our<br />

4/2 rule, we multiple our 9 outs times 4 (since we’re all-in on the<br />

flop) and come up with 36%. This is greater than the 33% we<br />

need, so we should call. Not too bad, right?<br />

Although it may seem cumbersome now, you will become very<br />

quick with this after some practice. You could run an EV<br />

calculation to check the EV of this call when you’re away from<br />

the table. Realize in the wager, when we win, we’ll win $49.<br />

This is $25 in the pot, and our opponent’s $24 bet. When we<br />

lose, we’ll lose the $24 we put in to call.<br />

0.36($49) - 0.64($24) = EV<br />

$17.64 – $15.36 = $2.28<br />

I do want to show you an alternate way to calculate your EV.<br />

This way you can use whichever method you like the best. We<br />

can multiply the total pot after we call by the probability we’ll<br />

win it. Then we subtract what we had to call.<br />

0.36($73) – $24 = EV<br />

$26.28 - $24 = $2.28<br />

So, with this call our EV is $2.28

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