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Poker Math That Matters

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66<br />

Implied Odds<br />

In this section, we'll be discussing how the decision of whether<br />

or not to call or fold is impacted by having money left to bet.<br />

This idea is called implied odds. Implied odds is looking at<br />

your reward to risk ratio in the light of future betting. Let's start<br />

out with an example.<br />

Hero: 6♠7♠<br />

Villain: A♦K♠<br />

Board: 4♠5♦A♥K♣<br />

The villain bets $5 into a $10 pot. We can quickly determine if<br />

we have immediate pot odds to call this bet. Our opponent bet<br />

1/2 pot, so we know we need 25% equity to call. We have eights<br />

outs to the nuts, and we're on the turn. So, our equity is about<br />

16%. This is less than the 25% we need, so looking only at this,<br />

we should fold. However, what we still need to know is if we<br />

still have money to bet on the river. If we have more money to<br />

bet, we may be able to call.<br />

One important point to make here is that we know his hand in<br />

this example, but he cannot know our hand. Why would it be a<br />

problem if he knew our hand? If he knew our hand, he would<br />

just check and fold on the river if we made our straight. If he<br />

does this, we won't get any money from him on the river. This<br />

really highlights an important consideration with implied odds.<br />

How easy is it to spot your draw? A draw like a flush draw is<br />

very easy to spot. Imagine there are two cards of the same suit<br />

on a flop, and you called your opponent’s turn bet. If the river<br />

brings that same suit, your opponent is going to be concerned<br />

about that flush and may not pay you off or pay you as much.<br />

However, a draw like an open-ended straight draw, as we have in

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