Poker Math That Matters

18
Your Expectations
When I was a 12-year old boy, I went fishing with my
grandfather. After fishing a couple hours, I pulled in a really big
Northern Pike. Well, the fish wasn’t the only thing hooked that
day. I was immediately hooked as well. I wanted to fish all day
every day after that. It was such a great feeling to pull in that
monster!
Poker stories often start the same way. Many times a beginning
NLHE player will sit down at a table and just go on a tear, and
that’s it. They’re officially a poker player and want to play all
day every day. Sometimes they’ll even pull out a calculator and
get started figuring out all the money they’re going to make.
They’ll never have to work again! Many beginning players have
come to me and told me their expectations about the money
they’re going to make and how easy it’s going to be. Recently a
guy came to me and told me about a session of playing a
$0.05/$0.10 game where he made $100. He said if he could just
make that amount even in a week, he’d be happy. So, he’s
planning on playing the game a bit more often to get a hold of
that $100 a week. Well, let’s take a peek at his expectations and
see how realistic that is. What information do we need to figure
out how much money he’ll make in a NL10 game in a week?
Here’s what we need.
1. The number of hands he plays in an hour.
2. The number of hours he plays in a week.
3. The size of the big blind in the game he plays.
4. His estimated win rate.
Let’s go over each of these briefly. We’ll start with the number
of hands played in an hour. This number can vary depending on
the type of game a player is playing, where he’s playing and the
number of tables he’s playing. For example, if someone is