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86<br />
AA: 3 combinations– 12%<br />
KK: 3 combinations – 34%<br />
QQ: 6 combinations – 46%<br />
JJ: 6 combinations – 46%<br />
AK: 9 combinations – 51%<br />
Looking at this problem, I’d use the MS method and think this<br />
way. We can work quickly by grouping hands against which we<br />
have roughly the same amount of equity. We see that with QQ,<br />
JJ and AK. Those hands total 21 combinations. Against 21<br />
combinations, we have around 50%. Against the other 6<br />
combinations, we’re around 20% (combining AA and KK and<br />
averaging them quickly). By dividing the 20% equity group by<br />
the total number of combinations, we can see the 20% group is<br />
about 25% of his total range (6 / 27 = 0.22). So, about 25% of<br />
the time we have 20% equity, and the other 75% of the time we<br />
have a little less than 50%. We can use the mental slider to get<br />
close to 3/4 of the way between 20 and 50. We’ll land<br />
somewhere right next to 40. Remember we need a bit over 40%<br />
equity to call, so, we would have around a break-even call.<br />
Notice if he could have TT as well, we have 6 more<br />
combinations where we have 46% equity, and our equity would<br />
climb a little bit. If he could have AQ, our equity against that<br />
hand is a whopping 75%, and there would be 12 combinations of<br />
that, which would increase our equity substantially. So, against<br />
a range like TT+ and AQ+, we’re actually a slight favorite and<br />
have a super easy call. Now, you can go through the more<br />
precise methods and find out with which one you’re most<br />
comfortable.<br />
Some of the more math-minded readers may be frustrated by all<br />
my rounding and estimating. But, estimates are ok. First of all,
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