Poker Math That Matters

There are three key variables when analyzing whether or not a
semi-bluff shove is a good move.
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1. The size of the pot in relation to the money left. The
larger the stack to pot ratio, the more often he must
fold. This is because we're proportionally risking more.
2. How often he folds. Normally the smaller the stack to
pot ratio, the less often he'll fold and vice versa. This is
because our opponent is normally aware of the reward to
risk ratio to some extent. 10
3. Your showdown equity. The more showdown equity
you have, the less often he'll have to fold.
Now, I promised a shortcut, so here it is. We’re going to look at
our reward to risk ratio in this shortcut.
The pot is currently $39. We have to shove $27. Remember
when we shove, we have equity. So, shoving isn’t risking $27 to
win $39. We have to find out what we’re actually risking. Our
shortcut has three steps.
1. Total pot size times our equity.
2. Subtract the result from step one from our bet.
3. Examine the reward to risk ratio.
Let's examine these three steps from our example.
1. The final pot would be $81. Our equity against his all-in
range is 24%. That would about $20. 11
10 Even though they may not know the math, most people will be more
cautious calling a large amount to win a small amount and vice versa.
11 I would do this quickly by thinking of 80 divided by 4.