Poker Math That Matters

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$Practical Poker Math$

Given an assumption of averaging 80% equity when getting allin, our opponent would need to stack with almost 11 times what we had to call preflop. However, there’s more to the story. 129 When our opponent starts with KK, and we flop a set, an A will also hit the flop about 16% of the time. We may be very unlikely to get our opponent’s stack now since he may be afraid we have an A. Of course, this gets worse when he holds QQ as a K and/or an A may flop. This cuts down on our implied odds. You also need to consider how well you play postflop. Will you have a hard time folding 88 when the flop comes 67s3, and the villain bets pot? Do you read hands well enough to handle these situations in a way that maximizes your earnings and/or minimizes your losses? Also, many times you’ll be out of position postflop, and it will be difficult to extract money from much of your opponent’s range. A good tip here is to set-mine when you know your opponent’s range is strong. If your opponent is a tight player and raises from early position, he’s likely to have a very strong hand range. If your opponent is a loose and aggressive player and raises from late position, his hand range is likely quite weak. The stronger hand ranges will find more reasons to get all-in on many more flops than a weaker hand range. Some players have recommended set-mining only if your opponent has started with 25 times the amount you have to call preflop. While I think this is a bit excessive, I think we’ve seen the point clearly. We need more implied odds to strictly setmine than we may think by looking at the odds of flopping a set or better. If you play well postflop and have a good handle on your opponent’s strategy, my recommendation would be making sure your opponent has about 15 times what you must call preflop. This is just a generalization, and table conditions and
130 past hands may cause you to tweak this number in one direction or the other. Quiz (Answers on pg. 198) 1. How often will you flop a set or better when calling preflop with a pocket pair? 2. What are some of the factors to consider when determining whether or not it’s profitable to call preflop with a pocket pair?
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Poker Math That Matters Simplifying
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Table of Contents Acknowledgements
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Set-Mining ........................
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Acknowledgements One of the most va
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xi poker fits my family's lifestyle
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2 Throughout this book, you will se
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4 Let’s talk a bit about how to d
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6 want to just play, play, and play
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Measurements Your Surroundings Ther
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Another measurement to understand i
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those sections. For a beginning pla
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Thinking About Bets in No-Limit Hol
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Here's why this works. If we were t
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playing at a 6-max table, he’ll p
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money for a while and not even be c
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Getting Started with Numbers Workin
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The last topic to cover in this sec
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doesn’t happen to complete our ra
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Expectation Value You’re walking
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0.5 * (-$10) = (-$5) Now let’s do
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Quiz (Answers on pg. 158) 1. Someon
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36 left to come on the river. What
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38 Hero: 6♠7♠ Villain: A♣K♦
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40 TT88A. Your opponent’s best ha
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42 Gutshot straight draw (aka Gutte
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44 you’ll need to add these toget
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46 9. Hero: Q♦K♥ Villain: A♠J
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48 19. Hero: A♠Q♣ Villain: 5♣
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50 The 4/2 Rule I hope you’ve tak
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52 pretty simple, right? But, of co
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54 Let’s try one more. Hero: J♥
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56 We can multiply these fractions
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58 4. Hero: 9♦6♦ Villain: J♦J
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60 So, the equation looks like this
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62 We have a flush draw. The pot is
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64 Quiz (Answers on pg. 174) For th
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66 Implied Odds In this section, we
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68 Table 6. Multiplication factor t
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70 3. Hero: A♣Q♦ Villain: J♦J
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72 When we look at the hand range s
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74 Figure 7. Two groups containing
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76 the probability distribution of
Page 89 and 90: 78 the suited A holdings villain co
Page 91 and 92: 80 8. Hero: 5♥6♥ Villain: 99, Q
Page 93 and 94: 82 section. As usual, we’ll talk
Page 95 and 96: 84 Now, obviously we’re going to
Page 97 and 98: 86 AA: 3 combinations- 12% KK: 3 co
Page 99 and 100: 88 2. Hero: J♠A♠ Villain: QQ, K
Page 101 and 102: 90 So, we lost $360 in Sklansky-buc
Page 103 and 104: 92 Quiz (Answers on pg. 184) Calcul
Page 105 and 106: 94 Take a second and think about th
Page 107 and 108: 96 make that bet. Looking at the EV
Page 109 and 110: 98 2. Hero: 5♠4♠ Villain: Fold
Page 111 and 112: 100 Let's do a quick exercise to es
Page 113 and 114: 102 39x - 7.56 + 7.56x > 0 46.56x >
Page 115 and 116: 104 $81(0.24) = $19.44 2. Our shove
Page 117 and 118: 106 Quiz (Answers on pg. 188) Assum
Page 119 and 120: 108 Value-Betting Value-betting is
Page 121 and 122: 110 and we’ll give him a $500 sta
Page 123 and 124: 112 only the hands that beat us. Ou
Page 125 and 126: 114 2. Hero: K♥Q♥ Villain: Call
Page 127 and 128: 116 7. Hero is out of position: K
Page 129 and 130: 118 and then consider your pot odds
Page 131 and 132: 120 Quiz (Answers on pg. 197) 1. Ho
Page 133 and 134: 122 Seems like a small thing, right
Page 135 and 136: 124 all sorts of As, Js and Ts in h
Page 137 and 138: 126 Quiz (Answers on pg. 198) 1. Wh
Page 139: 128 First of all, the above calcula
Page 143 and 144: 132 would want to get the money in
Page 145 and 146: 134 he can call profitably, if we h
Page 147 and 148: 136 It's obviously a mistake for hi
Page 149 and 150: 138 4. Hero: Q♣Q♦ Villain: 8♣
Page 151 and 152: 140 decision may be a totally diffe
Page 153 and 154: 142 adjustment. So, in order to avo
Page 155 and 156: 144 balanced poker every day of the
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Page 159 and 160: 148 Congratulations on making your
Page 161 and 162: 150 Comparing these two bet sizes,
Page 163 and 164: 152 So, we're still better of betti
Page 165 and 166: 154 Your Surroundings Quiz Answers
Page 167 and 168: 156 2. If you played 10,000 hands b
Page 169 and 170: 158 Answer: Probability is 2 6 odds
Page 171 and 172: 160 4. Someone holds out a deck of
Page 173 and 174: 162 4. Hero: 5♣7♣ Villain: K♦
Page 175 and 176: 164 9. Hero: Q♦K♥ Villain: A♠
Page 177 and 178: 166 14. Hero: 7♠8♠ Villain: 9
Page 179 and 180: 168 18. Hero: A♠5♠ Villain: A
Page 181 and 182: 170 22. Hero: 4♠5♠ Villain: A
Page 183 and 184: 172 The 4/2 Rule Quiz Answers 1. He
Page 185 and 186: 174 6. Hero: Q♦Q♥ Villain: A♥
Page 187 and 188: 176 4. Hero: 9♦6♦ Villain: J♦
Page 189 and 190: 178 Combinations Quiz Answers 1. He
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180 7. Hero: 6♥7♠ Villain: QQ,
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182 2. Hero: J♠A♠ Villain: QQ,
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184 outs for 6% equity. Against 66,
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186 Bluffing Quiz Answers 1. Hero:
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188 Answer: A 1/3 pot bet must work
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190 $24 - $14 = $10 We’re risking
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192 0.57($20) + 0.43(-$20) = EV 11.
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194 4. Hero: A♦J♦ Villain has $
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196 6. Hero is out of position: K
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198 2. How often will you flop an o
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200 2. What are some of the factors
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202 5. When might we allow some dra
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204
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206 Chopping Outs: Cards to come th
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208 Offsuit: Hole cards that do not
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Owen Gaines also wrote Hole Card Co
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Poker Math That Matters

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