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'Greek project' (1782; see p. 238), of risings of theBalkan Christians, of championship of the rayahs in thename of Orthodoxy, remained for the most part schemesand dreams, though pregnant with the future. Ottomanpower was still too strong, Russian still too remote, untila solid southern base could be established in the BlackSea steppes. These two facts, even more than therivalry with Austria, the diversions of Poland andSweden, the policies of Prussia and Great Britain andthe French support of the sultan, explain why EuropeanTurkey did not fare as Poland did in the eighteenthcentury.In the nineteenth century the Black Sea changes itsplace in Russian history. The rise of New Russiatransforms the economic position of the Black Sea andthe Straits and threatens to put the tsar's army and fleetwithin striking distance of the heart of the Ottomanempire. The conquest of Transcaucasia transforms theeastern Black Sea coast and neighbouring lands. Russiabecomes far more than before a magnet for the BalkanChristians, now in the throes of rebirth as modernnations. Under the impact of this last challenge and ofthe Western world in other forms the Ottoman empirebecomes more and more deeply shaken. Leaves of theartichoke are peeled off: the core itself is questionable.Some diagnose that " Turkey is a dying man. Wemay endeavour to keep him alive, but we shall notsucceed. He will, he must die"; that it is essentialtherefore for the powers to be ready in advance withsome " ulterior system and not allow events to take usby surprise" (Nicholas I, 184J. and 1853). Others holdthat "no empire is likely to fall to pieces if left to itself,and if no kind neighbours forcibly tear it to pieces"(Palmerston, 1838). Diverse suspicions and rivalriesaggravate the central problem of Constantinople and theStraits. To Russia the Straits figure as 'the gates toour house': the questions of ingress to and egress fromthe Black Sea and of the defence of her coasts are vitalissues. But for Turkey the Straits mean not so muchgates to her house as the very centre of her house, hercapital, Constantinople. Thus the Black Sea and the275