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200%0%19802045holidays. The share of domestic in total holidays onlystarts to fall if the lower income class are rich enough toafford a holiday abroad; with the estimates of Equation(4), this happens if average income exceeds $360,000, ahigh number.For the total (domestic and foreign) number oftourists, the world total is 12.0% higher if we include theinterpolated tourist numbers, that is, 4.0 billion versus3.6 billion tourists. The observed world total includesthose countries for which we have observed bothdomestic tourists and international arrivals. For domestictourists only, the observations add up to 3.1 billiontourists, and 3.5 billion tourists with interpolation, a12.1% increase.Note that Equations (3) and (4) can be used to deriveinternational departures, just like Equation (2). Thecorrelation coefficient between these two alternatives is99.8%. We prefer (2) for its simplicity.WTO (2002) contains data on the number of nightsforeign tourists stay in selected countries. Dividing bythe number of foreign tourists, this leads to the averagelength of stay, S. This can be modelled as(Equation 5)−6 −1 −4S = 2.13− 2.58 H −1.91⋅ 10 A + 2.06⋅ 10 T + 1.72⋅10Ci i i i i0.61 0.62 0.79 0.40 0.78where H is a dummy for measurement in hotels only (asopposed to all establishments). All parameters aresignificantly different from zero. The income per capitain the destination country does not affect the length ofstay. Equation (5) says that tourists stay longer in hottercountries, in smaller countries and in countries withlonger coasts; tourists spend less time in the destinationcountry if they are accommodated in a hotel.WRI (2002) has data on the total expenditures ofinternational tourists. Dividing by the number of arrivalsand their length of stay, this yields expenditure pertourist per day, E, which can be modelled as(Equation 6)2E = − 611+ 0.029Y + 295 P R = 0.31; N = 47i i i200 0.007 71where P is the ratio of the purchasing power parityexchange rate to the market exchange rate. Expendituresincrease linearly with the average per capita income inthe holiday country. This is as expected. Surprisingly,there is no significant relationship between the averageincome of the tourists and their expenditures. There isalso no significant relationship between expenditures andincome distributions, a measured by the Gini coefficient,in either the destination or the origin country. Per capitaincome is measured in market exchange dollars. Thesecond explanatory variable in (6) is the ratio ofpurchasing power and market exchange rates. This ratiois high (up to 5) for the least developed countries andaround 1 for developed economies. Holidays are moreexpensive in poorer countries, probably becauseinternational tourists tend to be restricted to luxuryresorts.100%80%60%40%20%0%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%19801985199019952000200520102015202020252030203520402045205020552060206520702075208020852090209521001980198519901995200020052010201520202025203020352040204520502055206020652070207520802085209020952100100%80%60%40%20%0%100%80%60%40%20%0%19801985199019952000200520102015202020252030203520402045205020552060206520702075208020852090209521001980198519901995200020052010201520202025203020352040204520502055206020652070207520802085209020952100SISSSANAFCHISEASASSAMCAMMDEFSUCEEANZJPKWEUCANUSAFigure 1. The regional distribution of domestic tourists (top, left), international departures (top, right), internationalarrivals (bottom, left) and tourism receipts (bottom, right) for the A1B scenarios without climate change. The regionsare, from top to bottom: Small Island States; Sub-Saharan Africa; North Africa; China, North Korea and Mongolia;South East Asia; South Asia; South America; Central America; Middle East; Former Soviet Union; Central and EasternEurope; Australia and New Zealand; Japan and South Korea; Western Europe; Canada, and the USA.Annual Proceedings of Vidzeme University College “ICTE in Regional Development”, 2006106
120100maximumworldminimum806040200-202000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100-40120100806040CanadaTajikistanGeorgiaArmeniaUkraineSloveniaMacedonia, FYRTurkeyAfghanistanGreeceRwandaPeruBermudaAustraliaDominicaLao People's Dem RepHondurasVanuatuCongoBahamasArubaTongaPanamaSolomon IslandsPhilippinesSingaporeSt. Vincent & GrenadinesNigerGambiaTuvalu200-20Figure 2. The effect of climate change on domestic tourist numbers, as a percentage of the numbers without climatechange; top panel: world average, maximum impact (positive), and minimum impact (negative); bottom panel: impactin 2100, countries ranked to their annual average temperature in 1961-1990.Annual Proceedings of Vidzeme University College “ICTE in Regional Development”, 2006107
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ISBN 9984-633-03-9Annual Proceeding
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“Development of Creative Human -
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TABLE OF CONTENTSINTELLIGENT SYSTEM
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INTELLIGENT SYSTEM FOR LEARNERS’
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LEARNER 1GROUP OF HUMAN AGENTSLEARN
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QuantityQuantityFigure 6. Distribut
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LEARNERStructure of theconcept mapL
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WEB-BASED INTELLIGENT TUTORING SYST
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materials to be presented and which
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES AND E-LEAR
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correspondence with the course aim
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projects and through IT. Hence, it
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APPLICATION OF MODELING METHODS IN
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can support configuration managemen
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The EKD is one of the Enterprise mo
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CHANGES TO TRAINING AND PERSPECTIVE
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or an end, yet none of these attitu
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make decisions. It cannot be volunt
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logs), data and video conferencing
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Ability to follow user’s multi-ta
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CONCLUSIONSEDUSA method gives us a
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in successful SD. Given this situat
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SPATIAL INFORMATIONFor the visualis
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MOBILE TECHNOLOGIES USE IN SERVICES
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learning environment (Learning Mana
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ago only some curricula on Logistic
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The Web-based version can be access
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Web-portal, which incorporates diff
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DO INTELLIGENT OBJECTS AUTOMATICALL
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Table 1. Examples for introducing R
Page 61 and 62: workable influencing of the process
Page 63 and 64: are handed over to the objects and
Page 65 and 66: • Basic processes, such as wareho
Page 67 and 68: THE ECR E-COACH: A VIRTUAL COACHING
Page 69 and 70: participating in the workshops and
Page 71 and 72: • Assessment modules enable indiv
Page 73 and 74: with pictures and illustrated graph
Page 75 and 76: ECR Question Banknumber category su
Page 77 and 78: educational programme that follows
Page 79 and 80: DEVELOPMENT OF WEB BASED GRAVITY MO
Page 81 and 82: These results of a model require a
Page 83 and 84: CONCLUSIONSThe main goal of work ha
Page 85 and 86: dimension and included within any o
Page 87 and 88: • Resources sharing by providing
Page 89 and 90: Pursuant to the guidelines of elect
Page 91 and 92: tariffs of regulated services have
Page 93 and 94: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR MOTIVATI
Page 95 and 96: difficult to predict when and for w
Page 97 and 98: Listeners' workon the WebListenersS
Page 99 and 100: PERSPECTIVES OF WEB PAGE AND E-MAIL
Page 101 and 102: INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF INTERNETU
Page 103 and 104: tourism accommodations (home pages
Page 105 and 106: interactive relationships with clie
Page 107 and 108: • The data obtained by the resear
Page 109 and 110: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvi
Page 111: departures for 1995 are taken from
Page 115 and 116: 140120maximumworldminimum1008060402
Page 117 and 118: would be a promising extension. Cur
Page 119 and 120: AN OVERVIEW OF THE AGENT − BASED
Page 121 and 122: Suitability for social system simul
Page 123 and 124: 6. MASONDescription:MASON is a fast
Page 125 and 126: Suitability for social system simul
Page 127 and 128: could be bad particularly when over
Page 129 and 130: (for 10 repeat &| CCar[]->runfor);P
Page 131 and 132: • Streaming audio• Collaboratio
Page 133 and 134: NECESSITY OF NEW LAYERED APPROACH T
Page 135 and 136: Up to now, there has only been limi
Page 137 and 138: aaaaa6= −aa2,1 = − a0,3226= −
Page 139 and 140: ∂ u∂x∂ u∂y2 2+ b = 02 2wher
Page 141 and 142: a6,3= −2030a4,5−130a4,3- - - -
Page 143 and 144: 0,10,20,30,4( )Mag x y y Ge wx2, =
Page 145 and 146: Example 1. To understand better the
Page 147 and 148: Therefore, further the following co
Page 149 and 150: SOLUTION OF THE THREE-DIMENSIONALEQ
Page 151 and 152: Mag1, m , m , m1 2 3= mm1 m2m32 2 2
Page 153 and 154: MagMag0, m , m , m1 2 31, m , m , m
Page 155: CONCLUSIONSThe basic content of thi
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