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DEVELOPMENT OF WEB BASED GRAVITY MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE COMMUTERS' FLOWSMarija Bogataj 1 , Samo Drobne 2 , Oleg Gaiduchenko 31 University of Ljubljana, Faculty of EconomicE-mail: marija.bogataj@guest.arnes.si2 University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Civil and Geodetic EngineeringE-mail: sdrobne@fgg.uni-lj.si3 Riga Technical University, Department of Modelling and SimulationE-mail: olegs@itl.rtu.lvKEYWORDSRegional development, migrations, travel time,municipality, commuters’, gravity model, web basedgravity model.ABSTRACTMain results of research performed at University ofLjubljana in Slovenia within Socrates/ErasmusExchange Programme in the framework of the project‘Regional Development influenced by the newSchengen border regime and by improvedtransportation networks’, are presented in the paper. Anoverview of the problem that relates to populationmigration in Slovenia is given. It is aimed to attractlocal citizens to participate in getting information aboutregional development and interregional migration -that is the recommendation of White Papers onEuropean Governance on how to enchase democracy inEurope with the aim to modernize European publicaction. The gravity model has been implemented as aweb-based application, where citizens couldparticipate and give an opinion to policy-makersabout the forecasting role and results of the model.INTRODUCTIONHuman migrations and periodical (daily or weekly)commuting to job, school or for other activities areregarded as the most important factors influencingthe demographic and socio-economic compositions ofstatistical regions, the composition of central places onthe regional level or the compositions of the total areas ofsettlements in the regions and their inhabitants. For thegeneral process of regional changes, an understanding ofinterregional migrations and daily or weekly commutingis vital (Bogataj and Drobne 2005).Public participation in local environmental decisionmaking,in the Slovenian population migrationproblem for example, has traditionally tended tofocus on attracting citizens in decision-makingproblems. Traditionally public participation has beenlimited to the public right to know, informing the publicand the public right to object. The ability to defineinterests, the actors, determine the agenda, assess risks,recommending solutions, and partake in the finaldecision has traditionally been closed to the public.The use of the Web pages in such situations has thepotential to break down the barriers to participation bytaking away certain psychological elements that thepublic face. Considering that most peoples concernregarding their surroundings involve spatial entities(mental maps, landmarks etc.) the use of GeographicInformation Systems (GIS) on the WWW has greatpotential for popular involvement. This can be achievedthrough the analysis of web access logs to track thedecisions made by users of the on-line systems beingdeveloped in this on-going research project.Using the standard statistical data such as - dailymigration, amount of employed or unemployedworkforce, time spending distances, are collectedusing GIS, stored, represented in the computer,retrieved, analyzed, and displayed: first using the ExcelSpread Sheet Gravity model and after reproduced anddisplayed into Web pages.As a result, the use of information technologies andgeographical information systems, the spatial-data aboutpopulation migration etc., has been performed as asingle whole tool to facilitate increasing efficiencyfor the citizens in getting information.PROBLEM STATEMENTThe gravity model data bank in this study was builtusing Census 2002 data based on Statistical Office of theRepublic of Slovenia. The base network data was builtbased on Ministry of Transport data (Ministry ofTransport of Republic of Slovenia 2005). Availableurban activity data, area, population, and employee, byzone and travel demand matrices by mode by districtzone were collected. The base year of the database was2002.Annual Proceedings of Vidzeme University College “ICTE in Regional Development”, 200673