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asia policy<br />
executive summary<br />
This essay examines four strategic dilemmas that the Republic of Korea<br />
(ROK) faces vis-à-vis China and discusses their implications for regional and<br />
U.S.-ROK relations.<br />
main argument<br />
The current bilateral relationship between China and South Korea is the best<br />
in the two nations’ modern histories. It is not clear, however, whether the<br />
current positive trajectory can be sustained into the future, given the recurring<br />
fluctuations in South Korea’s policy toward China. This dynamic results from<br />
four strategic dilemmas that South Korea faces in dealing with China: dilemmas<br />
over power, economics, North Korea, and entrapment in the U.S. alliance.<br />
Recent developments in Sino-ROK relations have led to new opportunities for<br />
greater bilateral cooperation but also have important implications for regional<br />
relations. In the triangular context of the U.S.-ROK-China relationship, South<br />
Korea’s closeness with China has not come at the expense of a diminished<br />
relationship with the U.S. This demonstrates that its bilateral relationships<br />
with China and the U.S. may not be mutually exclusive but could achieve<br />
positive-sum gains. Nevertheless, South Korea still faces significant challenges<br />
in managing relations with both countries.<br />
policy implications<br />
• Understanding South Korea’s strategic dilemmas vis-à-vis China is critical<br />
for the U.S. in order to successfully manage its alliance with the ROK. The<br />
two allies must address a misalignment of their policy priorities regarding<br />
China and determine how to sustain a coordinated, if not common, strategy.<br />
• The U.S. must recognize that South Korea’s outreach toward China is not<br />
construed as alliance dissonance. Seoul’s active engagement with Beijing<br />
can be a strategic opportunity to influence China to adhere to global norms<br />
and behave as a responsible stakeholder.<br />
• South Korea’s relationships with the U.S. and China need not be a zero-sum<br />
game or mutually exclusive. A deep alliance with the U.S. actually strengthens<br />
South Korea’s position as it deals with China, but only if Seoul resists Beijing’s<br />
efforts to demarcate the scope of its alliance with Washington.
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