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asia policy
South Korea and the Future of the South China Sea Disputes
No country is quite sure what the solution is to the South China Sea
disputes. What will happen in the South China Sea, however, is easier to
predict. It is likely that in the coming five to ten years the same situation that
we are observing today will continue. China will continue claiming nearly
the whole South China Sea as its territory and territorial waters and will
keep working on reclaiming land and constructing objects on islands and
reefs in the sea. ASEAN countries will continue to protest China’s behavior
but will not be able to take actions to deter it. The United States will push
forward its own interpretation of freedom of navigation, criticizing China’s
breaching of international laws. This, however, does not mean that the
United States is likely to use military power to deter China whenever China
behaves provocatively in the South China Sea. The United States has every
reason to take cautious steps when it comes to military actions.
Why is this so? First, China cannot back down because the Chinese
government has made it clear that the South China Sea issue is a matter
of sovereignty and a core interest. Second, the ASEAN countries, despite
their grievances, are not likely to have the capacity to confront China
militarily. Third, the United States will not be confident that it can defeat
China in the South China Sea. Defeating China militarily may not be in
question for the United States, given its naval power, but what matters is
the collateral damage that the United States will suffer if there is a serious
military confrontation in the South China Sea. Although China may not be
able to defeat the United States, it could deliver significant blows. Finally, no
country has a clear military and strategic edge over its opponents. Neither
the United States nor China wants to enter a serious military dispute that
will cause heavy damage to itself.
For countries like South Korea, such protracted low-intensity tension
is not a bad option. Of course, as the tension is prolonged, they will need
to continuously shift back and forth depending on the strategic situation,
thereby creating some strategic uncertainty. However, such a situation
could actually be better for the ROK than an all-out military confrontation
in the South China Sea, which would damage the South Korean economy
irreparably. If either the United States or China were to prevail, then
South Korea may have some substantial costs to pay—either economic or
security—depending on who the winner is.
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