22vPaX

asia policy
implications
The implications of Taiwan joining the TPP would be substantial and
affect its relations with both the mainland and the United States. As Tsai
Ing-wen has argued, Taiwan must “articulate an open and forward-looking
strategy for the future” that is “premised on robust economic, defense and
people-to-people relationships with the U.S., in parallel with a comprehensive
and principled engagement with China.” 24 The following discussion considers
the potential implications of Taiwan’s TPP membership for both cross-strait
and U.S.-Taiwan relations.
Implications for Cross-Strait Relations
China already has its own preferential trade framework with Taiwan.
President Ma signed the ECFA with China in 2010 in the hope that it would
entice other nations to follow China’s example. Taiwan’s economic cooperation
agreements with New Zealand and Singapore give credence to this view.
But if China did not already have FTAs with New Zealand and Singapore,
it is unlikely that Taiwan would have been able to sign these agreements
without opposition from Beijing. China’s stance on multilateral agreements is
somewhat murkier. It has not clearly stated its intentions to join the TPP, nor
has it taken a stance on the possibility of Taiwan joining. Such uncertainty is
itself a diplomatic tool—one that Beijing is likely to continue to use.
Assuming, however, that Taiwan does eventually seek to join the TPP,
framing this decision as an issue of economic necessity—as opposed to an
effort to distance itself from China—will be important. TPP membership
would allow Taiwan to diversify its trading partners, which would benefit
Taiwan both economically and strategically. Although TPP membership
would reduce its economic dependence on the mainland, a more economically
secure Taiwan, whether led by the DPP or the Kuomintang, would be in a
better position to maintain cordial relations with the mainland. By engaging
diplomatically with the mainland out of choice rather than necessity, Taiwan
could negotiate from a position of strength, which may provide greater
flexibility in compromise and cooperation. In addition, an economically
prosperous and competitive Taiwan benefits the mainland, which is the
island’s biggest trading partner. So too, Taiwan’s companies are a significant
source of mainland FDI and an important class of mainland tax payers.
24 Tsai Ing-wen, “Taiwan Can Build on U.S. Ties,” Wall Street Journal, June 1, 2015 u http://www.wsj.
com/articles/taiwan-can-build-on-u-s-ties-1433176635.
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