22vPaX

asia policy
South Korea Is Caught between the United States and China
Compared with the potential impact of the South China Sea disputes
on South Korea’s relations with the United States and China, the dilemma
with the ASEAN countries is secondary. It is not an exaggeration to say that
the United States and China have contradicting stances on the disputes. As
is the case with South Korea’s broader strategic dilemma of being caught in
the middle of Sino-U.S. strategic competition, the ROK is not entirely free
to support either power in the South China Sea without expecting a serious
backlash from the other superpower.
In general, South Korea supports freedom of navigation and the ruling
of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in
the disputes. It sees these mechanisms as ways to safeguard South Korea’s
huge economic interests in the South China Sea. If Seoul wants to take this
position a step further, it could say that demilitarization in the disputed
area also serves its interests. This would closely align the country with the
stance of the United States, which is one of the most important safety nets
for South Korea, especially against the potential threat from North Korea.
However, clarifying this position would almost certainly draw a harsh
response from China. Given that South Korea is so heavily dependent on
China for its economic prosperity, this would not be an easy policy option.
China accounts for over 30% of the ROK’s trade—more than its trade with the
United States and Japan combined. South Korea remembers what happened
during the so-called garlic standoff with China in 2000 when the government
imposed heavy tariffs on cheap garlic imports from China to protect South
Korean farmers. China responded by banning imports from the ROK of
mobile phones and chemical products. Whereas garlic imports from China
amounted to only $9 million at the time, South Korea’s mobile phone and
chemical product exports to China exceeded $471 million. 4 Additionally,
any country that is economically dependent on China will remember what
happened when China banned exports of rare earth elements to Japan in 2010.
However, South Korea’s economic dependence on China is not the only
important factor; security interests are also at stake. As the United States is one
of the most important players in the Korean Peninsula issue, so is China in a
different way. The United States is crucial in deterring any potential military
threat posed by North Korea. In contrast, South Korean policymakers have
long believed that China has the ability to influence and control North Korea’s
4 Don Kirk, “Just a Little Garlic Overpowers Asian Trade Ties,” New York Times, July 8, 2000 u
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/07/08/news/08iht-garlic.2.t.html.
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