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asia policy
it rebalances to the region. This situation also raises concerns about the future
direction of the U.S.-ROK alliance. More broadly, South Korea’s geostrategic
trajectory could directly affect the balance of power in Asia. Whether South
Korea inclines toward a rising China or stays anchored in the traditional
alliance relationship with the United States, it could become a marker of Asia’s
future direction.
This essay first will examine each of the four dilemmas identified above
and South Korea’s position in them to promote a better understanding of
the current trends in PRC-ROK relations and the principles driving South
Korea’s China strategy. It will then consider alternative arguments before
concluding with a discussion of implications for regional relations and the
U.S.-ROK alliance.
south korea’s four strategic dilemmas
There is a basic puzzle with regard to the South Korean view of China. On
the one hand, South Korea views China as the second most favorable country
among regional powers after the United States. 1 On the other hand, South
Korea also views China as a major threat. These diverging views mark a clear
departure from South Korea’s negative perception of China in the 1950–60s,
when China was largely considered a Communist adversary during the
Korean War and later North Korea’s staunch ally. Yet South Korea’s perception
of China remains complex and ambiguous at best. This complexity is not
just limited to public attitudes and perceptions but is also mirrored in the
government’s foreign policy toward China. Although South Korea pursues
close economic cooperation and a strategic partnership with China, it does
so while hedging, if not balancing, against a rising China. How do we then
unpack this exceedingly complex relationship?
South Korea’s China policy has a tendency to vacillate because the
country’s strategy toward China has been largely a combination of engagement
and hedging. A primary driving force behind Seoul’s engagement with Beijing
has been the need for Chinese cooperation on North Korea, combined with
burgeoning economic ties. By contrast, other political and military issues and
concerns make South Korea hedge against China. Of these considerations, the
most pertinent is the fact that South Korea is a treaty ally of the United States,
which places what one scholar calls “structural and perceptual limits” on its
1 Jiyoon Kim, Karl Friedhoff, Chungku Kang, and Euicheol Lee, “South Korean Attitudes on China,”
Asan Institute for Policy Studies, July 2014.
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