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asia policy
whose cooperation is the most critical for reunification. 24 Another survey
found that the South Korean public believed that North Korea’s nuclear
program (37.2%) and inter-Korean cooperation for reunification (20.6%) are
the two most important issues for PRC-ROK relations. 25
Despite decades of diplomacy, however, South Korea’s engagement
strategy has not been successful in gaining Chinese cooperation on North
Korea. The crux of the problem is that although Beijing publicly supports the
denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and peaceful Korean unification, its
core geostrategic interest lies in maintaining the current status quo with North
Korea as a crucial buffer state. China’s greatest fear is a reunification of the
North and South, presumably under the governance of South Korea, whereby
China loses that buffer zone and faces the U.S. Forces Korea immediately at
its border, as well the likely massive inflow of North Korean refugees. Only
by supporting the regime in Pyongyang can China avert such a daunting
outcome. As a result, these diverging interests have led China to apply
pressure on North Korea to rein in its nuclear weapons program and appease
other countries, on the one hand, but also provide oil and other political and
economic aid to North Korea so as to prevent the regime’s collapse, on the
other hand. 26 This two-track approach has been successful only in serving
China’s interests.
Nonetheless, cracks in what was once called a “lips and teeth” relationship
between China and North Korea have slowly begun to emerge, especially after
Kim Jong-un took power. The quintessential example is the fact that there has
not yet been a summit between Xi and Kim, whereas Xi and Park have held
six summits, including two state visits. North Korea’s missile tests in July 2014,
a day before Xi’s state visit to Seoul, were a clear sign of vehement protest over
China’s increasing closeness with South Korea. To reduce its overwhelming
dependence on China, Pyongyang made diplomatic overtures to Japan,
Russia, South Korea, and even the United States, but to no avail. Meanwhile,
a growing distance between Beijing and Pyongyang has allowed the Park and
Xi governments to draw closer than had previously been possible. In Seoul,
this is regarded as a window of new opportunity to pull China farther away
from North Korea and closer to South Korea. Successful summits, diplomatic
24 “Half of S. Koreans Pick China as Key Help in Korean Unification: Poll,” Yonhap News Agency,
February 5, 2014 u http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2014/02/05/36/0301000000AEN201
40205007200315F.html.
25 “South Koreans and Their Neighbors,” Asan Institute for Policy Studies, April 19, 2014 u
http://en.asaninst.org/contents/south-koreans-and-their-neighbors-2014.
26 Friedberg, A Contest For Supremacy, 191.
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