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The Context of HIV Risk Among Drug Users and Their Sexual Partners

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Blower <strong>and</strong> colleagues (1991) have presented a data-based mathematical<br />

model formulated to assess consequences <strong>of</strong> heterosexual, injecting drug<br />

use in order to provide qualitative <strong>and</strong> quantitative insights into the <strong>HIV</strong><br />

epidemic in New York City. <strong>The</strong> results demonstrated the significance <strong>of</strong><br />

the dynamic interaction <strong>of</strong> heterosexual <strong>and</strong> IDU transmission. In the<br />

early stages <strong>of</strong> the epidemic, IDU transmission is <strong>of</strong>ten more important<br />

than heterosexual transmission; however, the relative importance <strong>of</strong><br />

heterosexual transmission increases as the epidemic spreads from the IDU<br />

community to the heterosexual, non-IDU community. Results also<br />

indicated that the effect <strong>of</strong> the heterosexual transmission risk factor on<br />

increasing the risk <strong>of</strong> <strong>HIV</strong> infection depends on the level <strong>of</strong> injecting drug<br />

use risk. Results demonstrate that the addition <strong>of</strong> the heterosexual<br />

transmission risk factor does not increase an individual’s risk <strong>of</strong> <strong>HIV</strong><br />

infection among individuals with very high risk IDU activity (such as<br />

needle sharing with strangers). However, the addition <strong>of</strong> the same<br />

heterosexual risk factor for an individual with lower risk activity (such as<br />

sharing needles with a buddy) can significantly increase the individual’s<br />

risk for infection. Confidence intervals on the prediction estimates <strong>of</strong><br />

future cumulative number <strong>of</strong> AIDS cases are extremely wide. <strong>The</strong><br />

authors suggest that long-term precise estimates <strong>of</strong> the future number <strong>of</strong><br />

AIDS cases will only be possible once the values <strong>of</strong> key variables such as<br />

gender, needle sharing, <strong>and</strong> sexual behaviors have been evaluated<br />

accurately.<br />

Battjes <strong>and</strong> colleagues (1990) have explored heterosexual transmission by<br />

comparing <strong>HIV</strong> seropositivity among IDUs who have IDU sexual<br />

partners with rates <strong>of</strong> seropositivity among IDUs with no IDU sexual<br />

partners. <strong>The</strong> hypothesis for this analysis was that if sexual transmission<br />

is contributing substantially to the spread <strong>of</strong> <strong>HIV</strong> among heterosexual<br />

IDUs, then prevalence <strong>of</strong> <strong>HIV</strong> infection should be greater among IDUs<br />

with IDU sexual partners than among IDUs with no IDU sexual partners.<br />

In bivariate analysis, results indicated that heterosexual IDUs who<br />

reported having IDU sexual partners were more likely to be seropositive<br />

than IDUs who reported no IDU sexual partners. Yet, IDUs with IDU<br />

sexual partners also reported more drug-using practices that placed them<br />

at greater risk for <strong>HIV</strong> infection. Controlling for drug use <strong>and</strong><br />

demographic characteristics, having IDU sexual partners was no longer<br />

associated with increased risk for <strong>HIV</strong> infection. Thus, the apparent<br />

increased risk for <strong>HIV</strong> infection found in bivariate analysis may have<br />

been due to differences in drug use practices, not to additional risks<br />

resulting from sexual <strong>HIV</strong> transmission among heterosexuals.<br />

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