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lndustrial Wood Demand and Supply
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The ecological hazards to which I have referred stem prilnarily from a maegive increese
during the last few years in exploitalive logging in the South Pecific. It has followed the
resolve of the traditional log-exporting countries in Asia and Afnica to reduce the export of
unprocessed raw material.
A (gcade ago, Indonesia exported I{ million cubic rnetrer (t}) of logs, Malaysia 14
million m', end the Philippines 8 million m-. Six years later these volunes had dropped by
25% and in I98I by a further l0%. Over the same period, however, log exports from Papua
New Guinea rose by 100% and from the Solomon lslands by 2009L To contain togging costs'
producers ere now searching out flat, easy terrain in eparsaly populated areas - where thene
witl be no inconvenient demands for environrnental inpact stttements and where they may
imporl cheap labour without arousing too mueh opposition. This is taking them to lhe smaller
islands (in Papua New Guinea, for example, lo Woodlark and Umboi lelands, to Erromanga in
Vanuatu, to Kolombangara and South New Georgia in the Solomons) where their impact is
inf initely greater and the benef its more restricted tian on the bigger' more densely
populated, land masses, and where we simply do not know whet effects may result from
ecological change m this scale in a confined environrnent .
Changes in the regional forest economy must be viewed in the context of burgeoning
increases in globat demands for the products of the forests and, too, fon the land which
susLains them.
Moreover, in place of the dearth of reliable information about forest resources which
frustrated the early supply and demand forecaets of the FAO' we nowadays suffer almost an
'rembarrassrnent of riches" of prognoses. Technology changes more rapidly than [rees grow,
and faster than economisls think - but slower (it seems) than data accumulate! A smorgasbord
of satellite lechnology and electronic data processing equiprnenl currently enables us to
moniLor area and volune changes in the worldts forests with a greater precision than ever
before; for most countries, the reeults of such investigations have been frightening andr for
a! of us, they are sobering.
Tfe wortd in 1975 contained 2.8 billion hectares (ha) of closed forest capable of being
managed for a sustained yield - 40% conifergus (softwood), .50% broadleaved (har{wood).
These forosts csrry more than 100 billion m- of wood - of which 200 billion m- is of
hardwood and concentrated in the tropical and srb-tropical aress of Lafin Ancrica' Africa
and the Asia-Pacific region. From this resource, we remove 2.5 billion m- P.a - but although
this is less lhan I% of the growing stock, the removals are not balanced over lhe resounce
base. As to species, the conifers are intensively exploited, the hardwoods afe under-utilized.
To put these values into perspective, mly 40% of the world's forests are managed
(even zuperficially) to sustained yield standards (the rest are "mined'), while almost half the
forest removals are not used industrially at all (especially in Latin Arnerica and the
Asia-Pacif ic).
Several questions arise.
Firatly, ]row havc wc rcechod thir poition?
Ovgr the lasl 50 years, our world has experienqpd an increase in wood use from I
billion m'p.a. (bg equivalent neasure) to 2.5 billion m- p.a - of which about 5096 has been
used indqstrially. If these trends continued, the projecled global demand would reach 4.5
billion m' by the end of the century. (ln fact, this picture is misleading, because the trends
on which the projeclions are bsed were establiehed prior to the so-called energy crisis'
lriggered in l97J).
Sacmdlyr whcra ir thir indurtrisl wood lradad?
Tle industrialized nations consurne aome 82% of the total world slpply (North America,
)4%, the USSR and E. Europe 271f,, W. Europe I2%), and the lees developed countries uge
l8%. These figures illuetrate the massive dependence of world trede m the demends of lhe
developed countries.
Of interegt, too, is the fact thet rnerly 5096 of the worldrs trade in unprocessed loqa is
to supply Jpan, while 55-5096 of trade in sawn wood and pulp and paper ia handled by