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Western Europe. And despite the huge demands of Japan, thet nalion has a bigger proportion
of its land surface under foreets (6796) than any Pacific country other than Papua New
Guinea.
Thirdly, can thir trade be maintained?
Forecasts of future global needs for wood derive from models incorporating
econometric parameLers such Ls gross domestic product (GDP)' population gnowth rate, and
Iiteracy, and demand projections are mly as aceurate as the forecasts of changes in these
p"r"r"i"rr. Inasmuch es they take into consideration previous studies - and the results of
satellite surveillance - the estimates for rrGlobal 2000" (prepared f or e US presidential
committee in 1980; Barney, 1980) and those made by the Centre for Agrieultural Strategy in
198I, are the most convincing. Assuming high incqme growth and high GDP P
projected annual roundwood consunption is 6 billion m- by the year 2000 and Il billion m' 25
years later (respectively 2.4 and 4.4 times the 1976 consunption). f fe high grow$ ,T"l::i?
is, of course, 4rnrealisiic. Assuming no growth at all, demand will be 4 billion m- (in 2000)
and 6 billion m' (in 2025) - 1.6 and 2.4 times the 1976 figures.
Fourthly, how do thecc eatimetes cotrparG with futurc ilJpply forecaatr?
If we consider our existing forest resources and assunre the ttno growth[ renario, we
shall be cutting I.1% p.a. of thi growing stock by 2000 and nearly 2% p.a. by 2O25- This
implies a 50 yelr forest rotation - which may be feasible in coniferous forest (even in the
northern hemisphere) but is hiqhly unlikely in nrost tropical forests'
Fifthly, will technology enable us to extend arppliea?
The answer to this question is, of courte, "Yes, in theory". G. K. Elliott (perqonal
communication, 1982) has estimated a sustainable increase in zupply of I.4 billion m-, of
which 4995 derives from more extensi ve exploitation and eloser utilization of the worldrs
coniferous forest and 2J% from closer harvesting of the tropical forests: the remainder is
nrade up of increases in plantations (7%), improved silviculture (5%), reduced losses from fire
an.] patnogens (8%), increased use of wood residues (7%), and improved pulping yields (6%I
Mmt of these achievements wlll be costly and few of [hem offer much help to lhe Pacific
Islands. And even these increases are predicated upon sweeping changes in the acceptability
of species.
Moreover, the maintenance of supply assutnes lhat reductions in natural forest yields
and areas are balanced by increases from plantations. We are told by the Global 2000 report
(Barney, 1980), however, that the world's foresls are disappearinq at the rate of 18-20
million ha p.a. - mostly from the humid tropics - "Growing stocks of commercial size timber
are projected to decline 5096 per capita (over the next 20 years)... The projections indicate
that by 2000, some 40% of th; refrffi-hg forest coven in least developed countries will be
gone".ihere are few signs that plantation production will replace this lost yield. The FAO
tiSgZi projects an increlse from 5 million ha to 16 million ha in tropicgl plantations by the
year 2ti00-with industrial wood production reaching some I00 million m- p.a. (This does not
include a possible contribution f rom China, whose af f orestation proqnamme - largely
temperate - is enormous but for which information on long-term production possibilities is not
available).
Sixthly, how dcr the potential urpply rnetch the likely demand?
Evidently, not too well. Significant tightening in world zupply is inevitabte by the end
of the century, with a serious shortfall by 2O25. This situation presages conlinuing increases
in real prices for wood products and a rapid rise in the value of natural forests a their area
diminishes. There is no need [o spell out the commencial implications of these changes or to
identify the likely beneficiaries. More serious are the non-commerciel implications. The
countries of our region stand in as much reed of the goods and services which forests can
provide as any; and thene is more to Pacif ic Islends forestry than industrial wood production.
Tfe role of forests as a climatic buffer has yet to be analysed in detail, but it is
undoubtedly important; more readily evident in the larger and mountainous islands is their
crucial protective role in agricultune and water zupplies. The distinctive physiognomy of
forest ecotypes - in certain critical areas and in certain types of watershed - effectively
controls the siltation of rivers and reservoirs, prevents flooding and denudation, and enables