Rt€@lll

_26
rrtnenagetnent') will become rxlre common. Lerge-scale production will also find favour mee
again in some areas, and for some crops, especialty a ttre nural labour shortage which aome
countries already experience become rmre marked. But systems of smallhotdere working under
a larger rnenagement sJperstructure will spread.
The needs of the atolls warrant special consideretion. Tteir environmental conetrainte,
when combined with their location and.small size, prevent them from following the counse
which I foresee for the Melanesien and larger Polynesian countriee. Kiribati, Tuvalu end the
Tokelaus simply do not have slfficient_lani ar"a io slpporl their existing populetions m the
besis of commercial coc.onut farming. It is. extremely doubtful if they cai lifiport even their
existing populations without an indeiinite flow of remittences and overeeas aid. With the end
of phosphate mining of Banaba, Kiribati has recently lost the source- oigj-p"r cent of its
exports' Where the atoll regions are part of a larger polity I believe the men-fend balance m
the atolls will be !"p! ut. outmigration, as it has-been in the Cooks and the Tokeleue (with
rmvement to New Zealand), and in French Polynesia. But unless new international migration
arrangements are made for Kiribati and Tuvalu they will nol have this option. The
subsistence component of their agriculture and fishing must be intensified. This cannot be
done by standard agricultural practices but will requiie the extension of traditionel systemsl
the search for and introduction of new f-ruit end *t t.""., tolerant of sanoy soits ana periods
of water stress; the wider adoption of soil-forrning techniques; the ,+;;";ing of coconut
productivity, perhaps with hybrids developed speciaily for etoll conditions; and the genetic
improvernent and wider use of those few root crops wtrictr can be grown in this environnent.
All this calls for a particular form of scientific qplication to exiiting agricultural systems.
Such applications are normally concerned mly wiih cash crops which give the prospect of
financial r€turns. Here the returns will not be monetary, bui will be io less important to
human welf are, and the benef its will hetp the non-atolls as'well. BuL the countries themselves
are too small to carry the cost, and do not hsve the manpower or facilities to do the work.
It is a task which those metropolitan countries with interests in the region strould address eg
a matter of gneat urgency. The results may not solve entirely t}re OepeirO"ncy-of those atolls
states' but at least they should reduce the lever of nendicity.
I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
am rnost grateful to my colteagues in the ADB's South Paeific Agnicultural Survey
te-em for many of the
_ideas expressed in tfris paper. I am also indebted to B.J. Allen, W.C.
Qlarker D.R. Howlet!, D-.A-M. Lea, l4W. ward anb D.E. Yen for comments on en eerlier draft.
Ttcir help des not imply they agree with my opinions.