Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti
'contest elections, planne4 for',January.
.Thëse volitical moves released some of
the.pressure' oil the government. 'But
théy have done nothing :tci rêduce thé
ferocity and freqUency of guerrilla
attacks, Altliough 'the orygins and the
organisational profile of the guerillas:'is
unclear, there appears ,to be ,,8 broad
tactical alliance between Islamists,
nationalists and loyalistsof'the former
regime.
, '
, Foreign fighters linked to Al-Qaeda
are also gaining strength in Iraq and
are likely, to be operating with the sup-
,.pot!. Öf' 10câ1 rac:Ucal IsI~t groups.
The ..gUerrillas' ab~ity to operate is also
faciljtàted by thewidespreali ,opposition
to the US océupation and the .con.
viBtion. that' the Jljlwgoverl;1mènt,
p.ic~e,d 'by :tl:1e'U~arid 'the United
Nations and led by, a ,former exile"isno
more than aD' Anieriéan èreation~ :
sàmé, .s.\lmll politlciil. groups ~eeted
the Allawi, Cabinet with less appréhension'
than thé, preVious 'US-appq~tèd,
Gover:qing, cotiJicil, but :the so-Çalled
HigherCounéU' .of 'tJ:?~'.,sUimi Ulemas
(scholars); the political' arm df th,e
ISlanU;st.oPpositiiin" judged the iIj.terim
government. à disappoIntment: It has
continuëd to de~iUï ii' tiirietal:!le for
the withdrawal of, American, troops.,
MOl-Eiovèr,apoll.will this weekishow
, that the goverriment'i~'~nasa:polit1-
cal gimmick,according to Sa,aduri al-
DuleiIp.i, head of the kaqi Centre for
Research and Strategic' Studies.
.:"PeoPle, àre not optimistic," tie' says,
"They don't ,perceive any real cbimge."
\ O"ietO:the summer:, theDeW political
picture will be completed with a
national, conferÉmce to' chose a ,100-
member cbuncil. that will advise the
gove;nment. The conference was, con.
ceiv~d as anopportunity to. bring the
opposition mto the government fold. ,
But its impact'is likely to be'limited,
More than 70 people, including many
members onhe Governing Council, are
on the committee preparing' for the
conférence. All are expected 'to, push
their own candidaey' for the consulta~
tive council.
A
~illàr of the po~t .
" handovëi' strategy is,' to
, accelerate the reconstitution
, " oLlraq's'.armed .forces, 'ln
anot~erl'eversal of US policy;, Mr
Allawi wants tobfing back elements of '
Mr Hussetn'smilitarY. The priIp.emin-.
~ter'saides describè the dissolution of
the army decreed by Paul Bremer, the
departiilgUS administrator,. as Washington's
biggest mtsta".kein Iraq.
.' It' put hundreds, of' thousands' of
Iraqis out of work' and pushed some of
them into the arms of the Insurgents.
The tis's origtrull plan was for a small
army' of 35,000 soldiers to' defend
,against foreign threats, and a large
police fo~ce..But more than ayear after
the invasion\' there are about 7,000
reportedly ill-equipped soldiers ready
for combat. Plans now include bringing
back oldcommanders,expanding the
army to as ~any as 60,000 troops and
using it to combat the insurgency, Mr
al-Janabi says. .
'But thisisstill ,a iong-term project
and the problem isone' of quality as
much, as 'quimtity.. Soldiers already ,
trained for combat refuSed to back US
troops in the worst fighting in Falluja
in 'April. Manypoliéemen fled from
Shia,.towns..-when Mr al-Sadr launched
his uprising' in .the same month.
Muwliffak,al-Rubbaie, t,he govern-,
ment's national security adviser, says
Iraqi forces lack a' sense of purpose .
"You need to 'give them a nationalist
'mission and explàin that we're build-
, inga new Iraq,":he says. Yet effective
security will stay for the foreseeable
future in the hands of American
troops. Iraqi forces arebeing trained by,
Americans and. wouldhave to fight
alongside ,UStroops againstother
Iraqis. They could be branded as collaborators
and their families targeted by
the guerrillas~ ' .
"This government is 'going to be
dependent for thr~' tp: five years on
coalition forces: so hoW 'c;m it demobilise
whatis; 'increasingly a popular
insurgency." ,says Toby Dodge of the
UK-based'lntemaUonal Institute 'for
Strategid~tii~. .
r- Mr ,i>odge:à.dc\Sthat,~th: insumci~
numberS ' oF~~éà.ri ,t@p$ ;md 'i\n
linprepared ïn:~ouStoice,'the"~'
rity vacuum
couiii Brow;' ieavmg,Dùii~
tias tied t'~PQliiicir};iJioveDient~ ,tQ
asSert themselVes.