2012 COURSE DATES: AUGUST 4 – 17, 2012 - Sirenian International

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200 C.M. Duarte POTENTIAL STATUS IN 2025 The prospective trends in both human forcing and climate change for the next 25 years suggest that the status of seagrass ecosystems may somewhat improve in some developed countries, because legislation is being rapidly implemented to protect seagrass meadows. The zero loss policy in the USA and Australia (Coles & Fortes 2001) means that any losses caused by direct human intervention should be compensated by the creation, generally by transplanting, of a similar extent of new seagrass meadow. Indeed, the general public is becoming increasingly aware of the existence of seagrasses and their important services and functions in coastal ecosystems, which can only raise the prospect of implementing conservation management policies further. Tourism, which has often acted in the past as a vector of degradation of coastal ecosystems, is shifting towards a more sustainable perspective and is becoming, in many countries, an agent promoting an improved quality of coastal ecosystems. Regrettably, legal protection against seagrass losses is only possible where disturbance derives from proximal causes, and difficulties of assigning responsibility for more diffuse impacts imply that these cannot be corrected through a posteriori legal actions. This includes eutrophication-derived seagrass loss, for nutrient inputs are mostly diffuse in nature. Nutrient reduction plans are being implemented in most developed countries, although these seem to have had little impact on the extent of coastal eutrophication, which is likely to expand in the future, although hopefully at a reduced rate, despite efforts to reduce nutrient inputs. Moreover, the trends outlined above only encompass a fraction of the world’s nations, where losses over the 20th century have already been large, and include only a modest fraction of the world’s coastline and seagrass beds. The bulk of the extant seagrass meadows are found on the coastline of developing tropical countries, which are experiencing the greatest rate of environmental degradation at present, and will continue to do so in the future. The impacts on seagrass meadows there will derive from land-use changes, particularly deforestation, and the associated siltation of coastal waters and growing nutrient and sewage inputs, as populations, fertilizer use and sewage implementation expand, and the impacts of the rapidly-growing aquaculture operations arise. What the loss will be by the year 2025 remains uncertain, since the total extent of these impacts is as yet unknown. However, the geographic extent of these major impacts can be readily delimited to the developing world, particularly affecting seagrass meadows in South-east Asia, East Africa, and, to a lesser extent, the Caribbean. The coastal areas of other developing regions, such as South America and West Africa, support seagrass meadows that are much more limited in extent, so that the local impacts will affect smaller areas. Oceania is the only region with a major seagrass belt where losses are expected to be relatively small, due to the enforcement of zero seagrass loss policies and the small population (29.5 million) relative to the region’s coastline (30 663 km, i.e. 968 humans km -1 ) compared at the other extreme to Asia (14 197 humans km -1 ; World Resources Institute 1998). Even so, the coastal zone near Australian cities has already experienced a significant loss (e.g. Cambridge & McComb 1984; Clarke & Kirkman 1989), so that seagrasses are considered amongst the most stressed of Australian ecosystems (Kirkman 1992; Kirkman & Kirkman 2000). Seagrass meadows in both developed and developing regions will be affected by changes in global processes. The predicted sea-level rise of about 0.5 cm yr -1 (Mackenzie 1998) implies a further average regression of the global coastline by 12 m by the year 2025 and therefore important submarine erosion, which should impact seagrass meadows globally. Quantitative models relating coastline regression to submarine erosion and seagrass loss are, however, lacking, so that sensible predictions cannot be formulated. The sea-level rise may be faster than anticipated due to fast ice melt in polar regions, land subsidence, and the release of the fresh water retained in reservoirs reaching the end of their operative lives. Reservoirs presently hold an amount of water equivalent to 7 cm of sea-level rise (Carter 1988), and most of them will have exceeded their operative lives by the year 2025. This effect may be compensated by construction of new reservoirs. Submarine erosion may proceed further than expected because of the predicted increased frequency of storms and wave energy in the coastal zone with climate change (Carter 1988; Bijlsma et al. 1996). For similar reasons the consequences of the predicted increase of 0.5 o C in global temperature by the year 2025 (Mackenzie 1998) cannot be quantitatively formulated, although they are likely to be minor compared to other sources of change. Based on the calculations in Brouns (1994) and Beer and Koch (1996) the elevation of CO 2 concentration to almost 400 ppm by the year 2025 may further stimulate seagrass photosynthesis by 10<strong>–</strong>20%. In addition, Zimmerman et al. (1997) calculated that this increased photosynthesis may increase the depth limit of seagrasses, which may lead to an expansion in seagrass cover. The limitations of knowledge are evident from the fact that only qualitative predictions on the status of seagrass ecosystems by year 2025 are possible, because of (1) undefined rates of change in most relevant forcing factors, (2) lack of quantitative dose-response models that predict seagrass response to changes in environmental factors, and (3) absence of a reliable knowledge of the present extent of seagrass ecosystems. Even for responses where quantitative predictions may be formulated, such as the response of seagrass photosynthesis to increasing CO 2 concentrations, the forecasts are suspect, for they assume everything else to be held constant. The predictions therefore lose reliability when the plants respond in an integrative manner to multiple simultaneous changes (Chapin et al. 1987), and when these responses may be affected by responses of other components of the complex communities that comprise the seagrass ecosystem. For instance, the positive effect of increased CO 2
concentrations on seagrasses predicted from photosynthetic rates may be obscured by similar responses by the epiphytes, buffering the seagrass response due to shading. The predicted increase in water temperature may enhance community respiration, resulting in CO 2 concentrations higher than predicted if in equilibrium with the atmosphere in some ecosystems. However, enhanced seagrass respiration may also partially offset the possible increased photosynthetic gains. One of the major effects of climate change on terrestrial vegetation is the shift in vegetation ranges with global warming. A shift in the range of seagrass species, involving a displacement of subtropical and tropical species towards higher latitudes, similarly may be expected. This shift should not affect a poleward extension of the range of temperate species, for there is no evidence for temperature-dependence of the latitudinal limit of seagrasses (Hemminga & Duarte 2000; Duarte et al. 2002). In contrast to terrestrial vegetation, quantitative predictions on the possible shifts in seagrass ranges with global warming are, however, not possible at the moment, since these would be dependent on changes in the oceanic currents and fronts that are themselves difficult to forecast. The response of seagrass ecosystems to climate change integrate partial responses at a number of levels, from physiological to organismal and ecosystem levels, which often act in opposite directions and interact with one another. The complex nature of the responses renders our capacity to reliably predict the response of seagrass ecosystems to climate change weak. Provided the recent trends and anticipated threats identified, it is clear that the most likely scenario is one of major loss of seagrass ecosystems, although quantitative forecasts cannot be issued. In a scenario of present and future loss of seagrass ecosystems, the question of the reversibility of decline becomes critical, particularly because loss and recovery of seagrass may be also associated with loss and recovery of important associated fauna and resources. The partial recovery of North Atlantic eelgrass populations affected by the wasting disease within a couple of decades (Short & Wyllie-Echeverria 1996) shows that recovery from certain impacts may be possible. However, this is only so provided that suitable conditions to support seagrass growth are re-established. Yet, the forcing factors identified above as likely to cause seagrass decline by year 2025 are forecasted to increase even further beyond that date so that global-scale seagrass recovery may not even occur within the present century. Whereas recovery is possible for species with fast growth and/or sexual output, such as Halophila spp. and Enhalus acoroides (Hemminga & Duarte 2000), recovery is slow in slow-growing species relying largely on clonal expansion, like the Mediterranean Posidonia oceanica, where colonization is thought to take place over several centuries (Duarte 1995). In such species, present and future loss will therefore affect many generations to come. Recovery may involve a shift in species composition, towards either fastgrowing, pioneer species, such as Halophila and Halodule spp. (Marbá & Duarte 1998), and/or species with high repro- Future of seagrass meadows 201 ductive outputs, like Enhalus acoroides in the Indo-Pacific region (Duarte et al. 1997a). CONCLUSIONS AND MANAGEMENT Provided the largely qualitative nature of the possible predictions, the future of seagrass ecosystems remains uncertain. However, since their present status is already plagued with problems, and the future global environmental scenario is one of progressive change, the most likely prospect is a mounting global seagrass decline throughout the 21st century. The main threats to seagrass ecosystems on a large scale will continue to derive from human activity, both through direct disruption of the coastal zone, changes in land use and inputs of silt, nutrients and sewage to the coastal zone, as well as diffuse effects of human activity on climate (Figs. 1 and 2). Sea-level rise, in particular, is projected to be, and may already be (e.g. Marbá & Duarte 1997), a major cause of seagrass decline (Hemminga & Duarte 2000). Despite this alarm, knowledge of seagrass ecosystems is still insufficient to even document their possible present and likely future decline. The 600 000 km2 area global cover of seagrasses (Charpy-Roubaud & Sournia 1990) is only a best guess, derived from the application of a few rules of thumb, in contrast with the relatively adequate knowledge on the area cover of other key marine ecosystems that can be observed more easily from space (e.g. mangroves, coral reefs). Knowledge of the present area seagrasses cover globally is uncertain, and the situation is probably not much better for the bulk of the individual nations with an extended coastline. These uncertainties preclude any reliable quantitative forecast of future seagrass cover, and only qualitative forecasts can be formulated based on established trends and expected changes, supported by anecdotal evidence and opportunistic observations. Remote sensing techniques using optical or acoustic methods allow the monitoring of the surface seagrasses occupy, allowing the detection of seagrass regression or expansion (Kendrick et al. 1999; McKenzie et al. 2001) but cannot resolve changes in the internal density of the vegetated area. There is therefore a need to improve on the capacity to monitor seagrass remotely, such as improvements in acoustic techniques and use of hyperespectral imagerybased tools to discriminate between seagrass and other vegetated sediments. Monitoring programmes, typically based on the assessment of cover and shoot density along transects and quadrats, generally have an associated error greater than 30% about the mean (Heidelbaugh & Nelson 1996), making it difficult to reliably detect changes; a reliable assessment of decline may only be possible for losses already amounting to as much as 50<strong>–</strong>80%. The low power of monitoring techniques implies that most monitoring programmes can only detect a reliable tendency towards seagrass loss when the seagrass meadows monitored have already experienced substantial damage. There is, therefore, an urgent need to design more effective monitoring approaches, capable of
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ECOLOGY, BEHAVIOR & CONSERVATION OF
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discomfort without proper protectio
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ABOUT BELIZE Research Site: The pro
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FIELD TRAINING AND ASSIGNMENTS Duri
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ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SBCRC is s
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HEALTH INFORMATION Routine Immuniza
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• Consult the CDC for immunizatio
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Oil or oil-based repellant (e.g. ol
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Ecology, Behavior, and Conservation
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MINIMUM / MAXIMUM CLASS SIZE: 6-24
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COURSE FEE & ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
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Ecology, Behavior & Conservation of
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2012 Field Course Policy & Liabilit
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2012 Field Course Policy & Liabilit
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FIELD JOURNALS You are required to
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OUR INVESTIGATION Figure 2. G. crut
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OUR INVESTIGATION Introduction The
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OUR INVESTIGATION Introduction On a
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Method We selected a patch reef loc
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OUR INVESTIGATION Introduction We f
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OUR RESEARCH FINDINGS Introduction
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area on the north part of the islan
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Introduction Our Investigation Befo
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Introduction Sea stars have long be
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INVESTIGATION Introduction Retracti
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Introduction Shells serve as a limi
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Introduction Lunar reproductive rhy
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TRIP SUMMARY SHEET (page 1) Day of
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RECORD OF EFFORT DATA SHEET Event (
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MANATEE SIGHTINGS AND SCANS Page 2
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MANATEE SIGHTINGS AND SCANS Page 4
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Date: Page 2 of ____ Sight/Scan Rec
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Date: Page 4 of ____ Sight/Scan Rec
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Sighting Log Continued from Page 1
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2010 VT: Scholar, BANNER, Safe Zone
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presentation to Horn Point Environm
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• Developed and managed education
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LaCommare, Katherine S. November 20
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• Comparative Vertebrate Anatomy,
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B. Ouranos, C. Bursey, and H. Kalb.
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2006. Holy Redeemer Day Camp. Conta
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18 NEWS AND VIEWS By 1995, in respo
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4842 J. M. BLUMENTHAL ET AL. are co
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4844 J. M. BLUMENTHAL ET AL. templa
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4846 J. M. BLUMENTHAL ET AL. Fig. 2
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4848 J. M. BLUMENTHAL ET AL. Fig. 4
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4850 J. M. BLUMENTHAL ET AL. mixed
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4852 J. M. BLUMENTHAL ET AL. Formia
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The Elusive Manatee -- An ethologic
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during the summer months while othe
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polyandrous - often mating with sev
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in the summer. Chessie, a male Flor
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ecords indicate that manatees have
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Florida manatee. National Biologica
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parturition: the action or process
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Manatees on the Belize Barrier Reef
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(a) (b) Manatees on the Belize Barr
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direction, and (e) when ‘travelli
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Season signi cantly aVected mean se
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male travelled at least as far as B
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55. Ontario Fisheries Research Labo
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NEWS OF THE WEEK MEETINGBRIEFS>> 10
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Functional Ecology 2008, 22, 284-28
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286 S. R. Noren Fig. 3. Swimming ki
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288 S. R. Noren Kelly, H.R. (1959)
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630 MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, VOL. 23,
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MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, 15(1): 102-1
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104 MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, VOL. 15.
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114 MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE. VOL. 15.
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118 MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE. VOL. 15.
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36 LaCommare et al. to the Drowned
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manatus in Costa Rica. Biological C
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574 D. J. Semeyn et al. and natural
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576 D. J. Semeyn et al. Fig. 1 Refe
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578 D. J. Semeyn et al. Fig. 3 Refe
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580 D. J. Semeyn et al. Fig. 4 Kern
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582 D. J. Semeyn et al. biologists
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Intraspecific and geographic variat
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III. RESULTS Manatees in Florida an
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Genetica (2011) 139:833-842 DOI 10.
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Genetica (2011) 139:833-842 835 dur
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Genetica (2011) 139:833-842 837 Tab
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Genetica (2011) 139:833-842 839 Man
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Genetica (2011) 139:833-842 841 edu
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Fish Sci (2011) 77:795-798 DOI 10.1
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Fish Sci (2011) 77:795-798 797 was
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Low genetic variation and evidence
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Reduced Belize manatee dispersal an
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and respond to human encounters by
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tourist vessels are present, and th
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that approach behaviour may be habi
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to structure almost completely the
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MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, 27(3): 606-6
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Journal of Zoology The lesser of tw
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E. M. Arraut et al. & Sparks, 1989)
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E. M. Arraut et al. Frequent cloud
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E. M. Arraut et al. rising-water we
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E. M. Arraut et al. (Link, 1795) an
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The Journal of Experimental Biology
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Fig. 1. Rescue locations of manatee
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The present study is the first to c
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Bearhop, S., Waldron, S., Votier, S
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Table 1. Results from the GLM relat
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28
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Figure 1. Map of the Drowned Cayes
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Figure 3. Histogram of number of ma
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a. b. c. Power Power Power 100 80 6
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2012 COURSE DATES: AUGUST 4 – 17, 2012 - Sirenian International

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