[Sample B: Approval/Signature Sheet] - George Mason University

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The actual thresholds can be defined by the DM in order to establish the minimum acceptable level of utility and the maximum acceptable cost. In this example, the best region of the graph for an alternative to be is region 1 and the worst is region 4 (see fig. 45). Utility 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1 2 3 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Million U$ Figure 45. Cost Effectiveness Regions. In the hypothetical scenario, the alternative ASW is in the borderline between region 1 and 2, thus it may or not meet the cost requirements if estimates vary enough. The FTR alternative is the most expensive, but it also brings the largest contribution to the BAF‘s operational capability. On the other hand, CGO is below the utility threshold and is the second most expensive alternative, thus it should be one of the less preferred by the DM. Finally, HLA and UAV are the only alternatives within region 1, but small 90
variations in the UAV‘s utility can shift it to region 2. They have the lowest costs, but also the lowest utilities (see fig. 46). Utility 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 UAV HLA Figure 46. Alternatives – Cost Effectiveness. This type of analysis will complement the results yielded by the model and will help the DM to gain insights in order to address the important trade-offs needed to establish priorities among the alternatives. The utilities and ranking of alternatives yielded by the model must not be considered as the only indicators to support the decision. The sensitivity and the cost effectiveness analysis must be integrated into the set of information available to the DM so that he can make an informed decision based on accurate data, which is the real benefit provided by decision analysis. 0 ASW 91 CGO 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Million U$ FTR
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Comparing and Prioritizing Aircraft
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DISCLAIMER This work contains ficti
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tabl
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LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1:
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Figure 36: Utilities for Cargo (CGO
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ABSTRACT COMPARING AND PRIORITIZING
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Figure 1. Map of South America. 5 R
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- according to recent estimates - c
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transportation to others organizati
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Jobim points out that the lack of r
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2.1 Systems Life Cycle in the BAF 2
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system. The generation of a POR con
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section (OPS) is subordinated to th
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According to Ralph Keeney, the stra
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3. THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS AND METH
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the alternatives under analysis. 3.
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exhaustive representation of the me
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is met but does not directly measur
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Winterfeldt and Edwards argue that
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Moreover, the shape of the utility
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described by Kirkwood. 66 The aggre
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Additive independence is a stronger
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The multiplicative utility function
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4.1 Decision Support 4. MODEL CONST
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of the overarching objective of the
Page 52 and 53: Figure 9. Decision Frame with Funda
Page 54 and 55: Force Application Force Awareness A
Page 56 and 57: The following definitions were adop
Page 58 and 59: Engagement Attack precisely Attack
Page 60 and 61: different from engaging a target in
Page 62 and 63: Figure 19. Fundamental Objectives H
Page 64 and 65: capability to engage targets in the
Page 66 and 67: FORCE AWARENESS 2 DETECTION 2.1 INT
Page 68 and 69: 4.3.2 Assumptions As described befo
Page 70 and 71: Using the objectives hierarchy in f
Page 72 and 73: The next step was to verify the add
Page 74 and 75: was found to be utility independent
Page 76 and 77: An exponential SUF formula was used
Page 78 and 79: 4.3.4 Assessing weights Utility Fig
Page 80 and 81: A2.4 Endurance ranged from 0 to 5,
Page 82 and 83: 5.1 Populating the Model 5. VALUE M
Page 84 and 85: to replace Helicopter B (HLB), whic
Page 86 and 87: OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY Utility for
Page 88 and 89: 1.000 Utility 0.000 Utility 1.000 0
Page 90 and 91: the information already provided by
Page 92 and 93: This type of analysis looks for poi
Page 94 and 95: The great variations in the utility
Page 96 and 97: Utility 0.560 0.000 0 100 Figure 42
Page 98 and 99: As before, the weights variations w
Page 100 and 101: used to check the effects of these
Page 104 and 105: 8. CONCLUSION Brazil is a huge coun
Page 106 and 107: Finally, this research intends to f
Page 108 and 109: 1.2 Maximize the survivability capa
Page 110 and 111: 4 Maximize the Force Support capabi
Page 112 and 113: A1.6 Scope See A1.2 A1.7 Scope See
Page 114 and 115: A 2.11 Capacity Amount of data that
Page 116 and 117: APPENDIX 3 UTILITY FUNCTIONS 1 Maxi
Page 118 and 119: 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0
Page 120 and 121: 1.2 Maximize the survivability capa
Page 122 and 123: 2.1.2 In the surface. 1 0.8 0.6 0.4
Page 124 and 125: Utility Figure A3.17 - A2.7 Coverag
Page 126 and 127: 2.3.2 Using data 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
Page 128 and 129: 3.2 Maximize the airlift capability
Page 130 and 131: Utility 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 0 0 2
Page 132 and 133: 1Force Application 0.3208 2 Force A
Page 134 and 135: 2 Force Awareness 0.3448 3 Force Mo
Page 136 and 137: 3 Force Mobility 0.1724 4 Force Sup
Page 138 and 139: CARGO (CGO) Medium lift transport
Page 140 and 141: UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV) Medi
Page 142 and 143: South Atlantic scenario: National o
Page 144 and 145: 2. Force Awareness Table A7-3. Syst
Page 146 and 147: APPENDIX 8 GLOSSARY anti-submarine
Page 148 and 149: econnaissance aircraft - aircraft e
Page 150 and 151: REFERENCES Bizzi, Luiz Augusto, Jo
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―IMINT - NIIRS National Image Int
Page 154 and 155:
Winterfeldt, Detlof von, and Ralph
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[Sample B: Approval/Signature Sheet] - George Mason University

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