[Sample B: Approval/Signature Sheet] - George Mason University

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the information already provided by the ranking of alternatives, thus justifying the use of decision analysis processes 78
6.1 Varying Weights 6. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS In order to check the robustness of the alternative rankings, a sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the weights. The weights of the higher levels of the objective hierarchy are of particular importance because ―many of the weights at lower levels involve technical factors that limit the ability of non-experts to make the required judgments.‖ 120 Also, the high level weights represent policy judgments, and it is likely that they could be very different from decision maker to decision maker. 121 Moreover, Winterfeldt and Edwards state that ―it is unlikely that the weight judgments at lower levels of the value tree deserve to be included in the sensitivity analysis. Important sensitivities to weights arise at higher levels of those trees.‖ 122 Thus, the first part of the sensitivity analysis was focused on the variation of the weights of the highest level fundamental objectives: Force Application, Force Awareness, Force Mobility and Force Support. 120 John C. Butler et al., ―The Adoption of Multiattribute Utility Theory for the Evaluation of Plutonium Disposition Options in the United States and Russia,‖ in Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications, ed. Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles Jr. Jr, and Detlof von Winterfeldt, 1st ed. (New York, NY: Cambridge <strong>University</strong> Press, 2007), 499. 121 Ibid. 122 Winterfeldt and Edwards, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research, 414. 79
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Comparing and Prioritizing Aircraft
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DISCLAIMER This work contains ficti
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tabl
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LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1:
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Figure 36: Utilities for Cargo (CGO
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ABSTRACT COMPARING AND PRIORITIZING
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Figure 1. Map of South America. 5 R
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- according to recent estimates - c
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transportation to others organizati
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Jobim points out that the lack of r
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2.1 Systems Life Cycle in the BAF 2
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system. The generation of a POR con
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section (OPS) is subordinated to th
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According to Ralph Keeney, the stra
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3. THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS AND METH
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the alternatives under analysis. 3.
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exhaustive representation of the me
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is met but does not directly measur
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Winterfeldt and Edwards argue that
Page 40 and 41: Moreover, the shape of the utility
Page 42 and 43: described by Kirkwood. 66 The aggre
Page 44 and 45: Additive independence is a stronger
Page 46 and 47: The multiplicative utility function
Page 48 and 49: 4.1 Decision Support 4. MODEL CONST
Page 50 and 51: of the overarching objective of the
Page 52 and 53: Figure 9. Decision Frame with Funda
Page 54 and 55: Force Application Force Awareness A
Page 56 and 57: The following definitions were adop
Page 58 and 59: Engagement Attack precisely Attack
Page 60 and 61: different from engaging a target in
Page 62 and 63: Figure 19. Fundamental Objectives H
Page 64 and 65: capability to engage targets in the
Page 66 and 67: FORCE AWARENESS 2 DETECTION 2.1 INT
Page 68 and 69: 4.3.2 Assumptions As described befo
Page 70 and 71: Using the objectives hierarchy in f
Page 72 and 73: The next step was to verify the add
Page 74 and 75: was found to be utility independent
Page 76 and 77: An exponential SUF formula was used
Page 78 and 79: 4.3.4 Assessing weights Utility Fig
Page 80 and 81: A2.4 Endurance ranged from 0 to 5,
Page 82 and 83: 5.1 Populating the Model 5. VALUE M
Page 84 and 85: to replace Helicopter B (HLB), whic
Page 86 and 87: OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY Utility for
Page 88 and 89: 1.000 Utility 0.000 Utility 1.000 0
Page 92 and 93: This type of analysis looks for poi
Page 94 and 95: The great variations in the utility
Page 96 and 97: Utility 0.560 0.000 0 100 Figure 42
Page 98 and 99: As before, the weights variations w
Page 100 and 101: used to check the effects of these
Page 102 and 103: The actual thresholds can be define
Page 104 and 105: 8. CONCLUSION Brazil is a huge coun
Page 106 and 107: Finally, this research intends to f
Page 108 and 109: 1.2 Maximize the survivability capa
Page 110 and 111: 4 Maximize the Force Support capabi
Page 112 and 113: A1.6 Scope See A1.2 A1.7 Scope See
Page 114 and 115: A 2.11 Capacity Amount of data that
Page 116 and 117: APPENDIX 3 UTILITY FUNCTIONS 1 Maxi
Page 118 and 119: 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0
Page 120 and 121: 1.2 Maximize the survivability capa
Page 122 and 123: 2.1.2 In the surface. 1 0.8 0.6 0.4
Page 124 and 125: Utility Figure A3.17 - A2.7 Coverag
Page 126 and 127: 2.3.2 Using data 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
Page 128 and 129: 3.2 Maximize the airlift capability
Page 130 and 131: Utility 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 0 0 2
Page 132 and 133: 1Force Application 0.3208 2 Force A
Page 134 and 135: 2 Force Awareness 0.3448 3 Force Mo
Page 136 and 137: 3 Force Mobility 0.1724 4 Force Sup
Page 138 and 139: CARGO (CGO) Medium lift transport
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UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV) Medi
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South Atlantic scenario: National o
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2. Force Awareness Table A7-3. Syst
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APPENDIX 8 GLOSSARY anti-submarine
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econnaissance aircraft - aircraft e
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REFERENCES Bizzi, Luiz Augusto, Jo
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―IMINT - NIIRS National Image Int
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Winterfeldt, Detlof von, and Ralph
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[Sample B: Approval/Signature Sheet] - George Mason University

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