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Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...

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EPA forecasts ethanol production to continue to grow into the future. In addition<br />

to the past impacts <strong>of</strong> federal <strong>and</strong> state tax incentives, as well as the more recent impacts<br />

<strong>of</strong> state ethanol m<strong>and</strong>ates <strong>and</strong> the removal <strong>of</strong> MTBE from all U.S. gasoline, record-high<br />

crude oil prices are expected to continue to drive up dem<strong>and</strong> for ethanol. As a result, the<br />

nation is on track to exceed the renewable fuel volume requirements contained in the Act.<br />

Today’s ethanol production capacity (4.9 billion gallons) is already exceeding the 2006<br />

renewable fuel requirement (4.0 billion gallons). In addition, there is another 2.5 billion<br />

gallons <strong>of</strong> ethanol production capacity currently under construction. 40 A summary <strong>of</strong> the<br />

new construction <strong>and</strong> expansion projects currently underway (as <strong>of</strong> June 2006) is found<br />

in Table VI.A.2-1.<br />

Table VI.A.2-1<br />

Under Construction U.S. Ethanol Plant Capacity<br />

2006 ETOH Baseline New Construction 2006 Baseline + UC<br />

MMGal/yr Plants MMGal/yr Plants MMGal/yr Plants MMGal/yr Plants<br />

a<br />

Plant Expansions<br />

PADD 1 0.4 1 0 0 0 0 0.4 1<br />

PADD 2 4,710 93 2,048 35 252 8 7,010 128<br />

PADD 3 30 1 30 1 0 0 60 2<br />

PADD 4 98 4 50 1 7 1 155 5<br />

PADD 5 34 3 90 2 0 0 124 5<br />

Total 4,872 102 2,218 39 259 9 7,349 141<br />

a Under Construction<br />

A select group <strong>of</strong> builders, technology providers, <strong>and</strong> construction contractors are<br />

completing the majority <strong>of</strong> the construction projects described in Table VI.A.2-1. As<br />

such, the completion dates <strong>of</strong> these projects are staggered over approximately 18 months,<br />

resulting in the gradual phase-in <strong>of</strong> ethanol production shown in Figure VI.A.2-2.<br />

40 Under construction plant locations, capacities, feedstocks, <strong>and</strong> energy sources as well as<br />

planned/proposed plant locations <strong>and</strong> capacities were derived from a variety <strong>of</strong> data sources including<br />

<strong>Renewable</strong> <strong><strong>Fuel</strong>s</strong> Association (RFA), Ethanol Biorefinery Locations (Updated June 19, 2006); Ethanol<br />

Producer Magazine (EPM), U.S. & Canada <strong>Fuel</strong> Ethanol Plant Map (Spring 2006); <strong>and</strong> International <strong>Fuel</strong><br />

Quality Center (IFQC), Special Bi<strong>of</strong>uels Report #75 (April 11, 2006) as well as ethanol producer websites.<br />

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