Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...

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have assumed that 250 million gallons of ethanol in 2012 will come from a cellulosic biomass source. Also, EIA has projected in their economic modeling a biodiesel demand in 2012 of 300 million gallons. Thus for both the required and projected volume scenarios that we evaluated for 2012, we assumed these same production volumes for cellulosic biomass ethanol and biodiesel. As discussed above, we chose 2004 as our baseline. However, a direct comparison of the fuel quality impacts on emissions and air quality required that changes in overall fuel volume, fleet characterization, and other factors be constant. Therefore, we developed a reference case which represents the fuel volume, fleet characterization, and other factors expected in 2012. Fuel quality was maintained by simply growing ethanol use in equal proportion to growth in gasoline demand through 2012. A summary of the assumed renewable fuel volumes for the scenarios we compared is shown in Table II.A.1-1. Table II.A.1-1 Renewable Fuel Volume Scenarios (billion gallons) 2012 2004 Reference RFS Required Projected Volume Base Case Case volume Corn-ethanol 3.5 3.9 6.95 9.35 Cellulosic ethanol 0 0 0.25 0.25 Biodiesel 0.025 0.028 0.3 0.3 Total volume 3.025 3.928 7.5 9.9 2. Emissions We evaluated the impacts of increased use of ethanol and biodiesel on emissions and air quality in the U.S. relative to the 2012 reference case. For the nation as a whole, we estimated that summertime VOC and NOx emissions from gasoline and diesel vehicles and equipment would each increase by about 0.5 percent for the 7.5 billion gallon scenario, and by about 1.0 percent for the 9.9 billion gallon scenario. This would be equivalent to between 28,000 and 97,000 tons of VOC + NOx nationwide. However, the effects will vary by region. For instance, for areas in which 10 percent ethanol blends already predominated in 2004, such as New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles, if they continue to use ethanol at the same levels there will be no impact. However, for conventional gasoline areas in which no ethanol was used in 2004 but which are projected to transition to full use of ethanol in 2012, we estimated that VOC and NOx emissions from gasoline vehicles and equipment would increase by 3 - 5 percent and 4 - 6 percent, respectively. - 18 -
Unlike VOC and NOx, emissions of CO and benzene from gasoline and diesel vehicles and equipment were estimated to decrease when the use of renewable fuels increased. Reductions in emissions of CO varied from as low as 1.3 percent to as high as 3.6 percent for the nation as a whole, depending on both the renewable fuel volume scenario and assumptions regarding the amount of ethanol used in reformulated versus conventional gasoline. Benzene emissions from gasoline vehicles and equipment were estimated to be reduced from 1.7 to 6.2 percent. We do not have sufficient data to predict the effect of ethanol use on levels of either directly emitted particulate matter (PM) or secondarily formed PM, but do expect a net reduction in ambient PM levels to result due to the secondary PM impacts as discussed in section VIII.C. However, data on direct PM emission impacts is available for biodiesel. We estimate that reductions in emissions of direct PM from the projected increase in the use of biodiesel to be about 100 tons nationwide, equivalent to less than 0.5 percent of the diesel PM inventory. The emission impact estimates described above are based on the best available data and models. However, it must be highlighted that most of the fuel effect estimates are based on very limited or old data which may no longer be reliable in estimating the emission impacts on vehicles in the 2012 fleet with advanced emission controls 3 . As such, these emission estimates should be viewed as preliminary. EPA hopes to conduct significant new testing in order to better estimate the impact of fuel changes on emissions from both highway vehicles and nonroad equipment, including those fuel changes brought about by the use of renewable fuels. We hope to be able to incorporate the data from such additional testing into the analyses for other studies required by the Energy Act in 2008 and 2009, and into a subsequent rule to set the RFS program standard for 2013 and later. We used the Ozone Response Surface Model (RSM) to estimate the impacts of increased use of ethanol on ozone levels for the 7.5 billion gallon use scenario representing the required volumes under the RFS program. We did not evaluate other renewable fuel volumes scenarios due to the limited amount of time available for completing this NPRM. The ozone RSM approximates the effect of VOC and NOx emissions in a 37-state eastern area of the U.S. Using this model, we projected that the changes in VOC and NOx emissions could produce a very small increase in ambient ozone levels. On average, ozone levels increased by 0.06 ppb, which represents less than 0.1 percent of the standard. Even for areas expected to experience a significant increase in ethanol use, ozone levels increased by only 0.1 - 0.2 ppb, less than 0.2 percent of the standard. These ozone impacts do not consider the reductions in CO emissions mentioned above, or the change in the types of compounds comprising VOC emissions. Directionally, both of these effects may mitigate these already small ozone increases. The ozone impacts also do not consider the impact of increased emissions from ethanol and biodiesel production facilities or any corresponding decrease in emissions from refineries. 3 Advanced emission controls include close-coupled, high density catalysts and their associated electronic control systems for light-duty vehicles, and NOx adsorbers and PM traps for heavy-duty engines. - 19 -
Page 1 and 2: The Administrator signed the follow
Page 3 and 4: Ave., NW, Washington DC. This Docke
Page 5 and 6: Table of contents: I. Background A.
Page 7 and 8: C. Requirements for Producers and I
Page 9 and 10: G. Executive Order 13045: Protectio
Page 11 and 12: The increased use of renewable fuel
Page 13 and 14: establish the applicable national v
Page 15 and 16: Today's proposal outlines the full
Page 17: enewable fuel feedstock market pric
Page 21 and 22: These renewable feedstocks are then
Page 23 and 24: 5. Potential Water Quality Impacts
Page 25 and 26: enewable fuel volume which each par
Page 27 and 28: certain volume of renewable fuel. E
Page 29 and 30: est practices would have the option
Page 31 and 32: As stated, the renewable fuel stand
Page 33 and 34: enewable fuel volumes in the calcul
Page 35 and 36: For illustrative purposes, we have
Page 37 and 38: These credit provisions have meanin
Page 39 and 40: Stdi = The RFS program standard for
Page 41 and 42: gasoline. The Act is unclear on whe
Page 43 and 44: . Ethanol Made From Any Feedstock I
Page 45 and 46: generate thermal energy used to pro
Page 47 and 48: animal wastes, including poultry fa
Page 49 and 50: limit this program solely to a stra
Page 51 and 52: presence of the denaturant. For ins
Page 53 and 54: First, doing so could create an inc
Page 55 and 56: For purposes of this preamble, the
Page 57 and 58: capability for all of the small ref
Page 59 and 60: trading program, without any per ga
Page 61 and 62: obligated parties. However, there i
Page 63 and 64: particular importance for 2013 and
Page 65 and 66: have to significantly change their
Page 67 and 68: The D code would identify cellulosi
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Another case in which a RIN may not
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Section IV. In the context of demon
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equired volumes shown in Table I.B-
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We request comment on the valid lif
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e used for current year compliance.
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equirements by roughly 10 to 30 per
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4. Provisions For Exporters Of Rene
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Previous-year RINs: RINs that came
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a. Responsibilities Of Renewable Fu
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another, in electronic or paper for
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e a one-to-one correspondence betwe
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Parent batch Actual volume (gal) Ba
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should also have the right to separ
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3. Distribution Of Separated RINs O
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obligated parties to exercise marke
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Our proposed program is designed to
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As discussed in Section III.D, it i
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additional enforcement burdens plac
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B. Requirements for Obligated Parti
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fuel and containing identifying inf
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We request comment on our proposed
Page 111 and 112:
We also request comment on our prop
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The refiner or importer would be li
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Plant Feedstock Corn a Table VI.A.1
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Leading the Midwest in ethanol prod
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EPA forecasts ethanol production to
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As shown in Table VI.A.2-1 and Figu
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3. Current Ethanol and MTBE Consump
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Oxygenate Use (Bgal) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.
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change from the 2004 base case. 53
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per gallon to biodiesel produced fr
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ased on the assumption that the ble
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Modifications to the rail, barge, t
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other waste materials as discussed
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elatively small fraction of the tot
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production costs using prices for s
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the capital cost of making the nece
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information on biodiesel freight co
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For further details on RVP reductio
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assuming only that blending of etha
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costs). At a $70 per barrel crude o
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gasoline use scenarios will cost th
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the incentive to blend in ethanol b
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supporting this rulemaking. We hope
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We base our estimates of fuel quali
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Table VIII.A.1.b-2 Effect of MTBE a
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pre-1998 model year onroad diesel e
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1. Primary Analysis The national em
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Table VIII.B.1-4 Annual Emissions N
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RFG due to the absence of an RVP wa
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increase in ambient ozone levels is
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developing a model of secondary org
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IX. Impacts On Fossil Fuel Consumpt
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intended to help fuel producers est
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efficiency and to reduce air emissi
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combined those displacement indexes
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3. Displacement Indexes (DI) The di
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Table IX.C.1-1 Fossil fuel impacts
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as on the exports of agricultural p
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which may change in response to an
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X. Agricultural Sector Economic Imp
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XI. Public Participation We request
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ways to comply with any previously
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small refiner under this proposal.
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meet these criteria to be considere
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“economically significant” as d
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40 CFR Part 80 is proposed to be am
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(b) Renewable Fuel Standard for 200
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(2) The term “Renewable fuel” i
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RFStdi = Renewable Fuel Standard in
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a party’s renewable volume obliga
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(a) YYYY is the calendar year in wh
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(ii) The value for EEEEEE in an ext
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(2) A deficit is calculated accordi
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(a) (1) Any party that exports any
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(e) If a refiner is complying on an
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calendar year; however, disqualific
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§80.76, if such information has no
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(1) A summary report of the annual
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(4) Reports shall be submitted on f
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(1) Fail to acquire sufficient RINs
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(b) The following attest procedures
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(B) That the RFS-FRGAS remained seg
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EPA employees or EPA contractors, f
Page 237 and 238:
(iv) Determine the date and time th
Page 239:
(ii) Be licensed as a Certified Pub
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