Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...

For illustrative purposes, we have estimated the standards for 2007 and later
based on current information using the formulas discussed above. 11 These values are
listed below in Table III.A.2-1. The values of the variable RFV are the required
renewable fuel volumes specified in the Act (and shown in Table I.B-1). The projected
gasoline and renewable fuels volumes were determined from EIA’s energy projections.
Variables related to state or territory opt-ins were set to zero since we do not have any
information related to their participation at this time. Small refinery and small refiner
gasoline volumes were calculated based on our proposed method of assuming a constant
percentage relative to projected nationwide gasoline. As mentioned earlier, we estimate
the small refinery and small refiner fraction to be 13.5%. The exemption for small
refineries and small refiners ends at the end of the 2010 compliance period. The deficit
for 2006 (applicable to the 2007 standard) was assumed to be zero.
Year
Table III.A.2-1
Projected Standards
Standard
Cellulosic
Standard
2007 3.71% Not applicable
2008 4.22% Not applicable
2009 4.72% Not applicable
2010 5.21% Not applicable
2011 4.82% Not applicable
2012 4.85% Not applicable
2013+
4.70% min.
(non-cellulosic)
0.16% min.
For calendar year 2013 and thereafter, the applicable volumes are to be
determined in accordance with separate statutory provisions that include EPA
coordination with the Departments of Agriculture and Energy, and a review of the
program during calendar years 2006 through 2012. The Act specifies that this review
consider the impact of the use of renewable fuels on the environment, air quality, energy
security, job creation, and rural economic development, and the expected annual rate of
future production of renewable fuels, including cellulosic ethanol. We intend to conduct
another rulemaking as we approach the 2013 timeframe that would include our review of
these factors. This rulemaking would present our conclusions regarding the appropriate
applicable volume of renewable fuel for use in calculating the renewable fuel standard for
2013 and beyond. However, at a minimum we expect that the sum of the cellulosic and
non-cellulosic standards for 2013 will be no lower than the 2012 standard. Until such
time as we conduct that rulemaking, the program proposed by this rule would continue to
apply after 2012.
11
“Calculation of the Renewable Fuel Standard,” memo to the docket from Christine Brunner, ASD,
OTAQ, EPA, September 2006.
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