Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...

come entirely from imports of finished products, as shown below in Table IX.D-1. We
compare these reductions in imports against the AEO projected levels of net petroleum
imports. The range of reductions in net petroleum imports are estimated to be between 1
to 2%, as shown in Table IX.D-2.
Table IX.D-1
Reductions in Imports of Finished Products
(barrels per day)
Cases 2012
7.5 145,454
9.9 240,892
Table IX.D-2
Percent Reductions in Petroleum Imports
Compared to AEO2006 Import Projections
Cases 2012
7.5 1.1%
9.9 1.7%
One of the effects of increased use of renewable fuel is that it diversifies the
energy sources used in making transportation fuel. To the extent that diverse sources of
fuel energy reduce the dependence on any one source, the risks, both financial as well as
strategic, of potential disruption in supply or spike in cost of a particular energy source is
reduced.
To understand the energy security implications of the RFS, EPA will work with
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). As a first step, ORNL will update and apply the
approach used in the 1997 report Oil Imports: An Assessment of Benefits and Costs, by
Leiby, Jones, Curlee and Lee. 97 This paper was cited and its results utilized in previous
DOT/NHTSA rulemakings, including the 2006 Final Regulatory Impact Analysis of
CAFE Reform for Light Trucks. 98 This approach is consistent with that used in the
Effectiveness and Impact of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards Report
conducted by the National Research Council/National Academy of Sciences in 2002.
Both reports estimate the marginal benefits to society, in dollars per barrel, of reducing
either imports or consumption. This “oil premium” approach emphasizes identifying
those energy-security related costs that are not reflected in the market price of oil, and
97 Leiby, Paul N., Donald W. Jones, T. Randall Curlee, and Russell Lee, Oil Imports: An Assessment of
Benefits and Costs, ORNL-6851, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, November 1, 1997.
(http://pzl1.ed.ornl.gov/energysecurity.html)
98 US DOT, NHTSA 2006. "Final Regulatory Impact Analysis: Corporate Average Fuel Economy and
CAFE Reform for MY 2008-2011 Light Trucks," Office of Regulatory Analysis and Evaluation, National
Center for Statistics and Analysis, March.
(http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/staticfiles/DOT/NHTSA/Rulemaking/Rules/Associated%20Files/2006_FRIAPu
blic.pdf)
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