Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Renewable Fuel Standard ...

IX. Impacts On Fossil Fuel Consumption and Related Implications
Renewable fuels have been of significant interest for many years due to their
ability to displace fossil fuels, which have often been targeted as primary contributors to
emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and national energy concerns such
as dependence on foreign sources of petroleum. Because significantly more renewable
fuel is expected to be consumed over the next few years than has been consumed in the
past, there is increased interest in the degree to which their increased use will impact
greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption.
Based on our analysis, we estimate that increases in the use of renewable fuels
will reduce fossil fuel consumption and GHG emissions as shown in Table IX-1 in 2012.
The results represent the percent reduction in total transportation sector emissions and
energy use. The ranges result from different cases evaluated of the amount of renewable
fuel (7.5 billion gallons versus 9.9 billion gallons) that will actually be produced in 2012.
Table IX-1
Lifecycle Impacts of Increased Renewable Fuel Use
Relative to the 2012 Reference Case
7.5 Billion Case α
9.9 Billion Case β
Percent Reduction in Transportation
Sector Petroleum Energy Use
Percent Reduction in Transportation
Sector Fossil Fuel Energy Use
Percent Reduction in Transportation
Sector GHG Emissions
Percent Reduction in Transportation
Sector CO2 Emissions
α 7.2 billion gallons of ethanol
β 9.6 billion gallons of ethanol
1.0 1.6
0.5 0.8
0.4 0.6
0.6 0.9
This section provides a summary of our analysis of the fossil fuel impacts of the
RFS rule.
A. Lifecycle Modeling
Although the use of renewable fuels in the transportation sector directly displaces
some petroleum consumed as motor vehicle fuel, this displacement of petroleum is in fact
only one aspect of the overall impact of renewable fuels on fossil fuel use. Fossil fuels
are also used in producing and transporting renewable feedstocks such as plants or animal
byproducts, in converting the renewable feedstocks into renewable fuel, and in
transporting and blending the renewable fuels for consumption as motor vehicle fuel. To
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