Naylor Road Metro Station Area Access and Capacity - WMATA.com.

estimates a 35-percent increase in peak period Metrorail entries and an eight-percent increase in
off-peak entries between 2012 and 2040, resulting in a total daily increase of 27 percent. Most of
the growth in Naylor Road Station entries is concentrated in the peak period. This is consistent
with the redevelopment vision for the station area that emphasizes high-density office in the
immediate Naylor Road Station area, which will increase peak-period commuting.
Station Access
With the transformation of the Naylor Road Station area from an automobile-oriented transit
center to a regional center of mixed-use TOD, how people access the station will change by 2040.
The travel demand model results, shown in Table 17, are expressed as percent changes in mode
share from 2012 to 2040. The model estimated mode share changes for the peak and off-peak
periods; when combined these periods account for a typical weekday. Results are shown for
these three periods—peak periods, off-peak periods, and all day—to provide a clearer picture of
how ridership is estimated to change. The last two rows of Table 17 show the before-and-after
snapshot of weekday station access.
As would be expected from a wholesale land use transformation that emphasizes walking and
cycling, the model estimated that nonmotorized access will grow significantly by 2040, owing
to the expected concentration of employment and retail adjacent to the station entrance as well
proximity to new high-density residential along Branch Avenue and Naylor Road. The model
did not separate walking and bicycle trips, but pedestrians will likely comprise the vast majority
of these trips as Metro’s bicycle access target for Naylor Road Station is one percent.
The model estimated a decline in automobile access as a percent of daily mode share,
particularly Kiss & Ride access. This is likely due to the changing demographics of station area
TAZs, a key input into the model. The model results are consistent with the likely future for
Naylor Road Station based on previous studies. As a result of a future joint development, the
existing Park & Ride lot could be removed or consolidated into a multi-level garage. Similarly,
the Kiss & Ride function will need to be incorporated into the new development.
The model’s initial results showed flat or negative bus ridership growth to the station. However,
the purpose of this study is to ensure adequate future access capacity for all modes, and as
such a conservative approach would be to plan for some increase in bus access facility needs.
To ensure that adequate bus capacity is considered, this study assumes bus ridership to Naylor
Table 17: 2040 Estimated Weekday Mode Share for Naylor
Road Station
Period
Park &
Ride
Kiss &
Ride Bus
Walk/
Bike Total
Weekday Mode Share Change from 2012 to 2040*
Peak Periods -3% -49% 35% 39% 35%
Off-Peak Periods 167% -75% 8% 294% 8%
All day 12% -56% 30% 92% 27%
Weekday Mode Share
2012 23% 12% 46% 19% 100%
2040 20% 4% 47% 29% 100%
* Rounded to the nearest whole number
Road Station will grow similarly to the
station’s Metrorail entries (35 percent during
peak periods and eight percent during off-peak
periods). As residential densities increase near
the station and along Branch Avenue, bus
ridership can be expected to similarly increase.
This study also included a separate analysis to
estimate future access needs for private shuttles
(i.e. non-Metro and non-county services that
typically serve offices, apartments, hospitals,
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