Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

page 102 of 188 RIVM report 461502024
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Initial Oil Total resource Transformation Learning rate (π) Initial Capital
production costs
base losses (τ)
output ratio refining
$/GJ EJ - - $/GJ
1971 1971 1995 1990 1971
1 CAN 2.0 5500 0.06 0.9 3.8
2 USA 1.9 20457 0.07 0.8 3.6
3 CAM 1.6 4295 0.13 0.9 4
4 SAM 1.3 20559 0.10 0.75 4
5 N AFR 1.1 2387 0.10 0.92 4
6 W AFR 1.3 2478 0.12 0.9 4
7 E AFR 3.4 3 0.06 0.9 4
8 S AFR 2.5 274 0.11 0.86 4
9 OECD Eur 2.3 3212 0.06 0.88 4
10 East Eur 2.4 316 0.13 0.9 4
11 CIS 1.6 11243 0.10 0.88 4
12 MidEast 0.5 23508 0.06 0.88 4
13 India+ 2.5 321 0.09 0.92 4
14 China+ 2.2 11099 0.07 0.91 4
15 SEA 1.4 2079 0.11 0.95 4
16 Oceania 1.9 5729 0.03 0.9 4
17 Japan 3.4 29 0.05 0.9 4
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The BLF-formulation is still very simple. Some variables are taken constant and the same for
all regions. Among these are:
• the Desired Gross Margin in BLF production (8%),
• the Technical LifeTime of BLF capital (15 year),
• the economic LifeTime of BLF capital (5 years),
• the average transformation losses in BLF (5%),
• the substitution elasticity between BLF and oil-derived LLF (4),
• the delay in penetration of BLF (5 years),
• the initial capital-output-ratio for biomass production (14.5 US$/GJ),
• the initial capital-output-ratio for conversion into fuels (87 US$/GJ).
The learning coefficients for BLF have also been set equal for all regions: i.e. 0.95 for biomass
production and 0.88 for the conversion into final fuels. For the land price we use estimates
based on IMAGE-TES and population and economic data, resulting in values ranging from 400
to 2500 $/ha. Comparison with existing land price data (FAO, 1997) indicates that these prices
are underestimated (for Western Europe, available land use data suggests a price between 3000-
5000 US$) but during the calibration process this is probably compensated by higher
assumptions for capital inputs.