Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

RIVM report 461502024 page 47 of 188
attribution to AEEI instead of PIEEI is somewhat ambiguous, as has been discussed before.
Certainly in this case, the AEEI has been so effective because the oil crises of the 1970s and
1980s initiated a consumer demand for more fuel-efficient cars and wave of innovations with
manufacturers. Thus, it was actually a price-induced response, one could argue. Also fuel
substitution has played a – minor – role. The curves on the right-hand side show that fuel use
for transport in Western Europe has fallen with some 20% between 1971 and 1995, instead of
an increase with 35%. Curves like these are quite region-specific.
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A second example is given in )LJXUH Industrial final energy demand across all fuels for
the Middle East region is shown, simulated and historical. There is a serious mismatch which
cannot be removed by changing the values of calibration variables within an acceptable
domain. The main reason for this is that the presumed relationship between industrial energy
use and GDP is, in the Middle East region, absent. This is understandable: income in the oilrich
countries in this region is strongly tied to the oil export revenues, hence the simulated
outcome reflects the decline in GDP after the oil price fall in the mid-1980s. However,
industrial activity did not follow this fluctuation as it had other determinants – so the actual
energy use in industry kept rising.
For those regions/sectors for which the current model formalism seems to produce
unsatisfactory results, a correction factor has been introduced. The reason to introduce this
correction factor is that the TIMER model is also used for policy analysis. For these purposes
historic trajectories can be very relevant (e.g. the 1990 base year of the Kyoto protocol). )LJXUH
shows the average value of these correction factors per region. The regions have been