Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

RIVM report 461502024 page 65 of 188
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The simulation of T-production hinges on several region-dependent variables:
• the fraction of demand which is considered base-load, FracBL (see earlier in this
paragraph);
• the maximum load factor for peak-load capacity, PLF max ;
• the time-dependent load factor for base-load T capacity, BLF T ;
• the time-dependent efficiencies of thermal plants (per fuel type) (η);
• the time-dependent investments costs of thermal plants (Isp T );
• the time-dependent fuels costs (as calculated in other submodels of TIMER);
• the time-dependent premium values (PT);
Using historical time-series for T-capacity and T-generation, we have varied the first two
variables in such a way that simulated and historical data give a good match. If this did not
succeed with a constant BLF T , its value has been adjusted. This procedure turned out to be
fairly straightforward.
We have used historical data of the thermal efficiency η (based on IEA data) and estimates on
investments costs (IEA, 1998), fuel prices for the electricity sector, and performed the
calibration by varying the fuel premium factors, PF.
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1971 1980 1995
Coal Oil NG Coal Oil NG Coal Oil NG
Specific investment costs ($/kWe)
1600 1470 930 1550 1420 860 1475 1350 750
Average efficiencies (-)
Can 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.37 0.34 0.37 0.40 0.39
USA 0.33 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.39
Cam 0.26 0.31 0.30 0.26 0.30 0.34 0.30 0.34 0.36
Sam 0.26 0.27 0.30 0.28 0.28 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.33
NAfr 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.35
WAfr 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.33
EAfr 0.28 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.33
SAfr 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.34 0.32 0.33 0.36 0.32 0.35
WE 0.34 0.35 0.38 0.35 0.36 0.39 0.37 0.38 0.38
EE 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.32 0.33 0.30 0.31 0.33 0.34
FSU 0.30 0.30 0.33 0.31 0.33 0.32 0.29 0.30 0.29
ME 0.22 0.30 0.25 0.29 0.38 0.28 0.34 0.40 0.38
SAs 0.27 0.26 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.33 0.32
EAs 0.26 0.26 0.28 0.27 0.30 0.29 0.30 0.35 0.34
SEAs 0.28 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.31 0.30 0.33 0.34 0.36
Oc 0.26 0.33 0.35 0.29 0.33 0.38 0.37 0.36 0.37
Jap 0.30 0.40 0.42 0.39 0.40 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.46
Source: IEA, 1998
For the adjustment time in fuel substitution we use 6-8 years; for the substitution dynamics
between thermal (T) and non-thermal (NT) capacity we use 20 years. Choices for the important
parameters are shown in 7DEOH and 7DEOH.