Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

page 174 of 188 RIVM report 461502024
between primary energy use and primary energy production are a result of fuel trade. The definition of
the eight primary energy carriers corresponds to those used by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
([SRUWDQG,PSRUWRI)XHO
unit: PJ/yr (Gigajoule per year)
dimension: region, primary energy carrier
Net fuel trade shows the fuel exports minus fuel imports of fossil and biomass-derived fuels in a region.
Fuel trade is based on the assumption that each region desires to import fuel from another region
depening on the ratio between the production costs in that other region plus transport costs, and the
production costs in the importing region. Transport costs are the product of the representative
interregional distances and time and fuel dependent estimates of the costs per GJ per km. To reflect
geographical, political and other constraints in the interregional fuel trade, some additional parameters
are used to simulate the existence of trade barriers between regions.
As TIMER is a long-term energy model, it is more important to focus on long-term trends than
on short-term fluctuations in energy trade. Some of these are caused by sudden increases in
production costs in specific regions - after which the model needs to find a new balance in trade
flows.
(QHUJ\FRVWVDVVKDUHRI*'3
unit: none (fraction)
dimension: region
Total energy costs are defined as the product of the secondary energy carriers and the corresponding
prices for end-use consumers, plus the annual investments made by end-users in energy efficiency.
These energy costs divided by GDP are a measure of the economic importance of the energy system. In
general, this ratio tends to decline as result of a slower growth of energy consumption than GDP. In
early stages of economic development, however, the ratio between energy costs and GDP might
increase along with a growing share of the industry sector. For regions with a large share of heavy
industry the ratio is clearly higher than in other regions. Regions with limited energy supply (i.e.
Eastern Africa, India) might in low-trade scenarios suffer from high fuel prices and thus from high
energy costs compared to GDP.
(QHUJ\LQYHVWPHQWV
unit: 1,000,000,000 US$(1995)/yr (billion 1995-US Dollars per year)
dimension: region, investment type
Energy investments show the 5 year running-average investment flows in each region associated with:
• the production of fossil fuels;
• the production of modern biofuels;
• electricity generation and distribution; and
• end-user investments in energy efficiency.
Energy investments are based on estimates of the required capital stock, given a forward estimate of
demand and capital-output ratios. They include expansion as well as replacement investments. Energy
system investments are an indicator of the economic inputs required to satisfy energy demand or use it