Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

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page 86 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 Historic data Model result USA SAfr WE EE FSU China OC )LJXUH&RPSDULVRQRIKLVWRULFDOFRDOSURGXFWLRQE\UHJLRQZLWKPRGHOOLQJUHVXOWV Hist.:Prod Model:Prod Model:dem. Hist:dem )LJXUH&RDOGHPDQGDQGSURGXFWLRQLQWKH86$KLVWRULFDOGDWDDQGPRGHOUHVXOW )LJXUH shows coal production in both surface and underground coal mining for the USA. In many regions the share of these two modes of coal production are relatively hard to calibrate. They turn out to be relatively sensitive to small changes in their production cost ratio, which in turn need to be tuned in order to reproduce the international coal trade. Nevertheless, for the USA, the shares of underground and surface coal are reproduced quite well. For Southern Africa ()LJXUH ) the results are amongst the worst, with far too low surface coal output. Besides the limited reliability and definitional issues about historical time-series, we believe a major obstacle in getting a better fit was the interaction with the historical trade flows which also had to be close to historical data. One explanation for these findings is that the situation of
RIVM report 461502024 page 87 of 188 South African coal was exceptional both in terms of wage rates and export opportunities in the period before apartheid was abolished. Moreover, as in other regions, the empirical basis for separating underground mineable from surface mineable coal are rather weak. Surface Underground VLPXODWLRQ GDWD GDWD VLPXODWLRQ )LJXUH86$VXUIDFHDQGXQGHUJURXQGFRDOSURGXFWLRQ Surface Underground VLPXODWLRQ GDWD GDWD VLPXODWLRQ )LJXUH6RXWKHUQ$IULFDVXUIDFHDQGXQGHUJURXQGFRDOSURGXFWLRQ
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Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

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