Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

page 18 of 188 RIVM report 461502024
- electricity generation costs
- fossil fuel (coal, crude oil, natural gas) production
- surface and underground coal mine production
- modern biomass use and production
- traditional biofuel use
In the calibration of the 17 region TIMER model, we have started using the parameter values
from the world version of the TIMER-model (Vries, 1995; Vries, 1996). Then, for each region
we compared the simulated and the historical values of the above-listed variables. Starting with
the exogenous model parameters, we make changes to see whether the simulated values can be
brought to closer match the historical values. These parameters usually represent system
characteristics that can be derived from literature. Often, their regional values differ for obvious
reasons from the world averages, e.g. the base-load factor for hydropower or the coal costs as a
function of depth. The parameters in TIMER are discussed in the separate chapters.
In the emission submodel, the calibration observables are the regional emissions as registered
in various databases. For CO 2 and SO 2 , calibration has happened for the full 1971-1995 period.
For all other gases – N 2 O, CH 4 , CO, VOC, and NO x – calibration has only been applied for the
year 1995 as reliable estimates for earlier years are lacking. Model outcome variables: energy
and industry related greenhouse gas and acidifying emissions and some other emissions (other
ozone precursors, halocarbons) are inputs for the IMAGE-model, i.e. the atmospheric
chemistry model of AOS.