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page 74 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 1970s, the prospects for these conversions processes were thought to be good 43 . However, the cost estimates for them tended to rise over time while the world oil prices have been falling. It also became evident that coal conversion processes have large negative environmental impacts, which will further drive up costs. Apparently, only integrated systems of coal gasification and combined-cycle electric power generation offer prospects for large-scale introduction within the next few decades. This is dealt with in the electric power generation (EPG) submodel. Not all environmental consequences of coal production can be dealt with in the present TIMER-model. Carbon-dioxide emissions and other coal-related environmental pressures such as emission of sulphur- and nitrogen-oxides are incorporated in the emissions module. Requirements for and degradation of land and water, however, are not included. As these may increase significantly in the future, they may become the topic of further study. TIMER : Solid Fuel submodel 6)ÃFRDOÃGHPDQG 7UDGHÃ,PSRUWVÃÉÃH[SRUWV RIÃ&RDO 8&ÃGHPDQG 6&ÃGHPDQG 8&ÃFRVW 6&ÃFRVW 6&ÃSURGXFWLRQ FDSLWDO 8&ÃSURGXFWLRQÃ FDSLWDO 6&ÃSURGXFWLRQ 6&Ã([SORLW LQYHVWPHQWV 8&ÃSURGXFWLRQ 8&Ã([SORLW LQYHVWPHQWV /HDUQLQJE\ GRLQJ &RVW 'HSOHWLRQ &DSLWDOODERXU ÃUDWLR &RVW 'HSOHWLRQ 8QGHUJURXQGÃPLQHGÃFRDOÃ8& /DERXU ZDJHV Cost 6XUIDFHPLQHGÃFRDOÃ6& Cum.prod )LJXUH2YHUYLHZRIWKHVROLGIXHOVXEPRGHO 6ROLGIXHOGHPDQGDQGWUDGH The demand for solid fuel in TIMER is determined on the basis of secondary coal demand (EDsubmodel, &KDSWHU), the need for solid fuel in electricity production (EPG-submodel, &KDSWHU ), the demand for coal for energy conversion purposes (e.g. to produce synfuels) and an additional factor to account for losses and energy sector consumption 44 . 43 It was claimed that at oil prices in the order of 30-40 1979-US $/bbl would allow commercial coal liquefaction; gas from coal might become available at prices of 8-9 $/GJ if coal is available at mine-mouth cost of about 1 $/GJ (Edmonds, 1985). 44 Demand for fuels is information which generates action in the supply models such that demand can be met – with a few possible exceptions – and is met by supply. For this reason we use demand and use interchangeably.
RIVM report 461502024 page 75 of 188 &RDO'HP = ( 1+ τ1) * ( 6( + )( + (&) GJ/yr (5.3) with CoalDem the total domestic demand for coal, SE secondary coal demand including for non-energy purposes, FE coal for electricity production, EC the amount of coal used in energy conversion processes 45 and the factor τ1 represents transformation losses between these distribution nodes and domestic end-use. On the basis of anticipated demand, coal companies decide to invest in coal producing capacity 46 . This planning is based on the Desired Coal Production, DesCP, which equals domestic coal demand but now including net trade, multiplied with an overhead factor τ1 and then extrapolated over a time horizon of TH years of the form (1+z) TH with z the annual growth rate in the past 5-10 years. In equation form: 'HV&3 ) 7+ = (&RDO'HP + &17UDGH ) *(1 + ] GJ/yr (5.4) and CNTrade the regional expected coal export minus coal import. Coal trade is modelled in a simplified way. All regions compare the price of coal produced in their region – the Domestic Coal Price, DCPrice – with the price of imported coal from other regions – the Coal Import Price, CIPrice. The latter is calculated from that region’s indigenous supply price plus additional transport costs derived from a regional distance matrix and a ton-km cost. A detailed description of the trade model is given in &KDSWHU. 6ROLGIXHOVXSSO\ The supply model model distinguishes between the resource base, CRB, and identified reserves, CRI. The first represents the ultimately recoverable coal at the technology and price levels throughout the simulation period. The second represents those parts of the resource base that have been discovered as part of the exploration process and are identified by the industry as technically recoverable. For coal exploration, two alternative formulations are included in the model. The first formulation is used to reproduce the historic development of reserves. In this case, the exploration rate of the resource base, CDR, is simply based on an exogenous time-series. The alternative formulation, used both for historic simulations and the future, is to use the desired Reserve Production Ratio, RPR des , which is an indicator widely used in industry. If RPR des exceeds RPR act , exploration efforts are accelerated. Next, the amount of investment needed in regional coal production is determined. This is based on the Desired Coal Production and the assumedly constant rate at which existing capacity is taken out of production. Given the production cost of underground- and surface-mined produced coal – the calculation of which is described below, a multinomial logit function is used to determine which part of the additionally required capacity is invested into underground mining. The market share of the two different coal production modes are based on the expected 45 The amount of coal used for energy conversion is simply given by scenario files. EC has to be included in historic calibration of certain regions (e.g Southern Africa). 46 Oil, gas and electric power use purchased by the coal industry are not accounted for c.q. included in the energy use of the industrial sector.
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Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

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