Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

page 16 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 domain and validity. It should be noted that complex model structures such as in the TIMER model make it impossible to pursue a rigorous calibration and validation. Instead, one has to be satisfied with a reasonable reproduction of available data about a few key observables, which are meaningful in the modelling context. Such a reproduction is not unambiguous: several sets of assumptions may give satisfactory results. Each of these sets may be plausible in the absence of sufficient understanding of the system, although such sets may be mutually contradictory. In this section, we discuss the calibration procedure, which is used to calibrate the model and to verify the validity of the model structure and the variables involved. A detailed account for the world version of the model (TIME) is given elsewhere (Vries, 1995; Vries, 1996; Vries, 2000). The general calibration procedure for TIMER consists of the following steps, performed for each region over the calibration period 1971-1995: 1. First, the Energy Demand (ED) submodel is calibrated using historical sectoral activity levels and sectoral secondary fuel and electricity prices. This yields the demand for secondary fuels (coal, oil(products), gas, traditional, electricity) which should be in fair agreement with the historical data (if not, possible explanations are discussed). 2. Next, the Electric Power Generation (EPG) submodel is calibrated using historical sectoral electricity demand and inputs in electricity generation (coal, oil/HLF, gas, hydro, nuclear). This is repeated with the simulated sectoral electricity demand to explore the discrepancies between simulated and historical time-series. This exercise yields fossil fuel and non-fossil (hydro, nuclear) inputs into electricity generation and installed capacities, which should be in fair agreement with the historical estimates. The simulated electricity costs c.q. prices are compared with the (scarce) historical data and used to do additional fine-tuning of cost parameters. Regional imports/exports of electricity have been included only as exogenous time-series – as they have been relatively small so far. 3. From the two previous steps, we calculate the simulated demand for coal, oil (HLF/LLF) and gas and compare them with historical data. Both the historical and the simulated timeseries are used to calibrate the Solid Fuel (SF), Liquid Fuel (LF) and Gaseous Fuel (GF) submodels. This yields calculated fuel prices which are then, in combination with premium factors, used as inputs for the Energy Demand model. For traditional biomass we use exogenous time-series; modern biofuel use is in nearly all regions small enough to be neglected. 4. In first instance, the previous step is performed with exogenous time-series for regional fuel imports and exports. Once the regional fossil fuel submodels show more or less correct behaviour, the fuel trade dynamics is included. This generates fuel imports and export flows based on relative production costs and transport costs and barriers. The latter are used to reproduce the historical trade flows within 5-10% accuracy, which is fairly good in view of the many non-price based interacting factors determining fuel trade. In the process, the submodels generate auxiliary results which are not influencing other submodel behaviour but which can be helpful in calibration and validation. For instance, in the EPG- and the SF-, LF- and GF-model the requirements for capital (investments), for labour (underground coal mining, biofuels) and land (biofuels) are calculated and then compared with available regional statistics. Using fuel-specific emission coefficients, the emissions of various gases can be calculated and compared with other estimates.
RIVM report 461502024 page 17 of 188 &ODVVLILFDWLRQRIYDULDEOHVIRUFDOLEUDWLRQSXUSRVHV A division has been made into five categories of model variables, each one with its distinct characteristics. This makes it easier to see which variables should be compared with historical data and which are to be estimated from expert literature and/or sensitivity analyses. The categories are: • exogenous drivers, which are determined by mechanisms outside the scope of the (sub)model and need to be entered exogenously, based either on historical facts or on assumptions about future developments. The major ones are regional population and sectoral activity levels (7DEOH). • calibration observables are those variables chosen from the available statistics to be reproduced by the simulation. Sometimes, these are exogenous drivers for one of the submodels during the iterative calibration procedure. Examples are secondary fuel demand and electricity use. • exogenous model parameters based on historical observables are variables that are not endogenously calculated or explained but estimated from literature. They may or may not be time-dependent. Examples are the efficiency and specific investment costs of thermal electric power plants or the ratio of exploration and exploitation costs in oil and gas supply. • model variables are parameters that are calculated in the model, and of which the outcome should be checked against historical data, literature estimates and results from other energy analyses, whenever available. Examples are the labour force in underground coal mining operations and the energy system investments. • other model parameters, which are partly based on historical data or on system-related assumptions, and are subjected to sensitivity analysis as part of the calibration procedure. Examples are the autonomous rate of energy efficiency improvement (AEEI), the secondary fuel cross-price elasticity and the associated premium factors, and the learning coefficients for surface coal mining and non-thermal electric power generation. In section 2.1, we indicated the general procedure of the calibration. In terms of variables, first, the exogenous drivers are introduced into the model. These are for the calibration period 1971- 1995 and the scenario period 1995-2100: population size ( per region), and activity level (per region and sector: GDP, VA industry , VA services , Private Consumption). For the emissions submodel, the important drivers are outputs from the Energy model: secondary fuel use and fuel input for electricity generation. For some relations, population and income are used. Emissions of halocarbons, i.e. CFCs, HCFCs, halons, carbon tetrachloride and methyl chloroform, hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs), perfluorocarbon (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) are introduced from exogenous series. Secondly, the calibration observables are introduced. The important ones are (for each region and for 1971-1995): - secondary fuel use ( per sector and fuel type) - electricity use (per sector) - secondary fuel prices (per sector and fuel type) - electricity prices (per sector) - electric power transmission and own use losses - electric power capacity - fuel inputs for thermal electric power generation (per fuel type)
Page 1 and 2: RIVM report 461502024 2001 7KH7DUJH
Page 3 and 4: RIVM report 461502024 page 3 of 188
Page 15: RIVM report 461502024 page 15 of 18
Page 67 and 68:
RIVM report 461502024 page 67 of 18
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
show all

Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?