Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

page 8 of 188 RIVM report 461502024
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In this report, we present a detailed description of the energy model TIMER 1.0 (Targets IMage
Energy Regional model 1 ). The TIMER model consists of the TIMER energy demand and supply
model and the TIMER emissions model (TEM). Hereafter we simply refer to the TIMER model.
The TIMER model is a system-dynamics, simulation model of the global energy system at an
intermediate level of aggregation. The model can be used both as a stand-alone model, or
integrated within the framework of the integrated assessment model IMAGE 2.2. In IMAGE 2.2
the TIMER model replaces the Energy-Industry System (EIS) of IMAGE 2.1. The main
objectives of TIMER are to analyse the long-term dynamics of energy conservation and the
transition to non-fossil fuels within an integrated modelling framework, and explore long-term
trends with regard to energy related emissions of greenhouse gases and other gases. TIMER is a
simulation model; it does not optimise scenario results over a complete modelling period on the
basis of perfect foresight. Instead, TIMER simulates year-to-year investment decisions based on
a combination of bottom-up engineering information and specific rules on investment
behaviour, fuel substitution and technology.
The framework IMAGE 2.2 (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) has been
developed to study the long-term dynamics of global environmental change, in particular changes
related to climate change (IMAGE team, 2001). In the IMAGE 2.2 framework the general
equilibrium economy model WorldScan and the population model Phoenix feed information into
two systems of models, i.e. the Energy-Industry System (EIS) and the Terrestrial Environment
System (TES). The Energy-Industry System (EIS) consists largely of the TIMER 1.0 model
described in this report. Together with the Terrestrial Environment System (TES), the land use
changes, as well as the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other gases are
calculated. These form the input of the Atmosphere-Ocean System (AOS) (including the
oceanic carbon models, the atmospheric chemistry model and the climate model. The
Atmosphere-Ocean System (AOS) calculates the atmospheric concentrations of these gases, as
well as climate change and sea level rise.
The TIMER 1.0 model builds upon several sectoral system dynamics energy models (Sterman,
1981; Naill, 1977; Davidsen, 1988). ; The model is based on the earlier TIME model that was
been developed and implemented for the world at large (Vries, 1995; Vries, 1996; Bollen,
1995). An earlier TIMER version has been implemented for 13 world regions (Vries, 2000).
The model version presented in this report is implemented for 17 world regions that are shown
in )LJXUH 2 . The model has been carefully calibrated to reproduce the major world energy
trends in the period 1971-1995.
In this report, we describe the main elements of the TIMER model, the underlying concepts and
technical formulation and we indicate how the model has been calibrated to reproduce historical
energy trends. In Chapter 2 a general overview of the model is given and the way in which the
model is calibrated is discussed. In the subsequent Chapters, the Energy Demand (ED) model,
the Electric Power Generation (EPG) model and the supply models of liquid, solid and gaseous
1 The model is called TargetsIMage Energy Regional model (TIMER) because it has originally been developed as part of the
IMAGE 2.1 model (Alcamo HWDO 1994, 1998) and the TARGETS model (Rotmans and De Vries, 1997).
2 Within the IMAGE 2.2 modeling framework a total of 19 global regions are the basis of analysis. For energy use, however,
the regions Antarctica and Greenland can be neglected so that a set of 17 regions remains.