Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...
Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...
Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...
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RIVM report 461502024 page 99 of 188<br />
Rogner’s estimate of world ultimately recoverable conventional oil resources is about 18.000<br />
EJ, which is at the higher end of the range mentioned above. Rogner’s estimate of<br />
unconventional oil occurrences is an astounding 92.000 EJ.<br />
The question is which oil resources can be mobilised depending on the extraction costs. )LJXUH<br />
shows some of different supply cost curves for conventional and unconventional oil found<br />
in literature. These curvescan be interpretedas the rate at which oil production costs may be<br />
expected to increase in a world without fuel trade barriers.<br />
7DEOH*OREDORLOUHVRXUFHVDFFRUGLQJWR5RJQHU<br />
7\SHRIRLO 2FFXUUHQFH EJ<br />
Conventional Oil Cum. Prod (1971-1995) 3057<br />
Proved reserves 6289<br />
Estimated Additional 2542<br />
Add. Special 3534<br />
Enhanced recovery 5774<br />
Shale, Bitumen and Heavy<br />
Oils<br />
Reserves 1893<br />
Resources 14052<br />
Add. Occurences I 24582<br />
Add. Occurences II 51768<br />
25000<br />
EJ<br />
20000<br />
15000<br />
10000<br />
5000<br />
0<br />
1 CAN<br />
2 USA<br />
3 CAM<br />
4 SAM<br />
5 N AFR<br />
6 W AFR<br />
7 E AFR<br />
8 S AFR<br />
9 OECD Eur<br />
10 East Eur<br />
Region<br />
11 CIS<br />
12 MidEast<br />
13 India+<br />
14 China+<br />
15 SEA<br />
16 Oceania<br />
17 Japan<br />
)LJXUH5HJLRQDOFUXGHRLOUHVRXUFHVDFFRUGLQJWR5RJQHU<br />
UnCO: Additional II<br />
UnCO: Additional I<br />
UnCO : Resources<br />
UnCO : Recoverable<br />
CO: Enhanced recovery<br />
CO: Add. speculative<br />
CO: Est. additional<br />
CO: Prov. recoverable<br />
It should be noted that the different supply curves have been constructed using different<br />
assumptions with regard to technology development and available resources and it is often hard<br />
to trace back their consequences. The two curves shown for Rogner, for instance, are based on<br />
different assumptions with regard to the ultimately extractable resource base (30000 vs. 110000<br />
EJ); both include the assumption that technology will reduce future extraction costs at a rate of<br />
about 1 %/yr. The curve by (Vries, 2000) has been constructed using detailed regional data,<br />
again mostly based on Rogner’s dataset but this time free of technological development.<br />
Interestingly, the different studies are in fair agreement on the trajectory for the first 30000 EJ.<br />
The most significant differences, in fact, seem to be caused by a different assumption on<br />
current extraction costs.
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