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page 144 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 GtC/yr 7 6.5 6 5.5 CDIAC TEM(iea) TEM(timer) JOREDO&2 5 4.5 4 3.5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 time (years) )LJXUH7KHJOREDOHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWU\UHODWHGHPLVVLRQVRI&2 LQFOXGLQJEXQNHUDQG IHHGVWRFNHPLVVLRQVIRUWKHSHULRGIRUWKHL&',$&GDWDDQGWKH7(0VLPXODWHG GDWD XVLQJ WKH HQHUJ\SURGXFWLRQ DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ GDWD RI WKH LL ,($VWDWLVWLFV DQG LLL 7,0(5PRGHO %R[8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHKLVWRULFDOIRVVLOIXHO&2 HPLVVLRQV The uncertainties in CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion arise from: • $FWLYLW\GDWDThere is an inherent uncertainty in the determination of historical activity data per country due to the lack of reliable statistics or complete absence of activity data. Comparison between data sources for energy is possible for the period after 1960/1970 (e.g. between UN and IEA data) but for older data - such as the new ORNL-CDIAC data set (Andres HWDO, 1999) - this is much more difficult. • (PLVVLRQIDFWRUVIt can be assumed that the quality of fossil fuels produced - and thus also the carbon content - has changed in the course of time. Even for the present, the energy content per unit of mass, for example for coal, is not accurately determined for all countries. Marland HWDO (1999) show differences of up to 78 Mton or 8% for the former Soviet Union and up to 28 Mton or 50% for North Korea when comparing estimates based on UN and on IEA data. Since we may assume that the energy content of fossil fuels will have changed in time, but to an unknown degree, this will be an additional factor contributing to the uncertainty of CO 2 emissions prior to 1950. • 'HILQLWLRQ RI EXQNHU IXHOV Because emissions in the Kyoto Protocol related to international air traffic and international shipping are excluded from the national emission totals, special consideration is necessary for the exclusion of bunker fuel emissions from the historical data sets of national emissions. In this regard the ORNL-CDIAC and EDGAR-HYDE data sets (Olivier HW DO, 1996, 1999; Klein Goldewijkand Battjes, 1997) report separately on international bunkers for international transportation on the basis of figures recorded in the energy statistics. However, it is well known that the uncertainty in these figures is fairly large. This pertains in particular to international aviation bunkers for which countries use different definitions or do not provide any separate figures (IEA, 1998), thus introducing additional uncertainty in estimating national total emissions as defined under the Kyoto Protocol.
RIVM report 461502024 page 145 of 188 25 20 TgS/yr Smith TEM(iea) TEM(timer) XVD62 25 20 TgS/yr ZHXU62 15 uea 15 10 10 5 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 time (years) 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 time (years) 25 TgS/yr 25 TgS/yr HHXU62 FLV62 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 time (years) 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 time (years) 25 TgS/yr 25 TgS/yr LQGLD62 FKLQD62 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 time (years) 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 time (years) )LJXUH 7KH UHJLRQDO HQHUJ\ DQG LQGXVWU\ UHODWHG HPLVVLRQV RI 62 LQFOXGLQJ EXQNHU HPLVVLRQV IRU WKH SHULRG IRU WKH L 6PLWK HW DO GDWD DQG WKH 7(0 VLPXODWHGGDWDXVLQJWKHHQHUJ\SURGXFWLRQDQGFRQVXPSWLRQGDWDRIWKHLL,($VWDWLVWLFVDQG LLL7,0(5PRGHO
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