Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

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page 110 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 one expression of the sheer complexity of the underlying phenomena, as is evident from the variety of models found in the literature. 5.00E+10 4.00E+10 3.00E+10 2.00E+10 1.00E+10 0.00E+00 1 CAN 2 USA 3 CAM 4 SAM 5 N AFR 6 W AFR 7 E AFR 8 S AFR 9 OECD Eur 10 East Eur 11 CIS 12 MidEast 13 India+ 14 China+ 15 SEA 16 Oceania 17 Japan )LJXUH&RPSDULVRQIRURLOSURGXFWLRQLQVLPXODWHGYHUVXVKLVWRULFDOGDWD Model History After trade, the oil prices per region are much smaller than the differences in production costs. )LJXUH shows the global trend in oil price – which is followed in most of the regions – for both historical data and according to the TIMER model. For the latter, we show the model results with and without the exogenously introduced oil crises (added to production costs). One can see that the global oil price level of the model does seem to be similar to the historical data. Historic data 86*- Model result, with exogenous oil crises WE, USA,Jap Model result, without exogenous oil crises Middle East )LJXUH :RUOG RLO SULFH KLVWRULFDO GDWD YHUVXV PRGHO UHVXOWV ± EHIRUH DQG DIWHU LQWURGXFWLRQRIH[RJHQRXVRLOSULFHGDWDOHIWDQGPRGHOUHVXOWVIRUUHJLRQDORLOSULFHVULJKW The result of introducing the oil price shocks on the regional oil market prices was a significant demand reduction, partly through energy efficiency investments and partly through substitution to other fuels. However, in our simulation it has not affected the relative competitiveness of producers on the world oil market, at least not directly. A closer look into the Middle East region shows this ()LJXUH ). The model reproduces the much higher oil production than consumption in this region: the Middle East is a large exporter. Again, the model results are smoother than the historical data – in particular during the fall in production between 1980 and 1985. However, the simulated fall in oil output in the Middle East region is less rapid and deep than occurred in reality, which can be explained because the model did not capture the market share loss of the Middle East – and other OPEC countries – through a variety of mechanisms.
RIVM report 461502024 page 111 of 188 Historic production Modelled production Historic consumption Modelled consumption )LJXUH2LOFRQVXPSWLRQDQGSURGXFWLRQWUHQGVLQWKH0LGGOH(DVWVLPXODWHGYHUVXV KLVWRULFDOGDWD 1DWXUDOJDVSURGXFWLRQ The assumptions described in 6.4, finally result in regional natural gas production costs as indicated in )LJXUH. As for crude oil, we can see large differences in production costs of natural gas. Very low production costs are found for most ‘oil-producing’ regions such as Northern Africa and Middle East. Also Western Africa and the Former Soviet Union have relatively low costs. In most regions, the current settings for technology development offset the assumptions made for depletion. This is, however, not in all regions. In two large oil consuming and producing regions, the USA and Western Europe, in fact the model results in increasing natural gas production costs. In Japan, natural gas production costs are extremely high.
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