Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

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page 104 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 )LJXUH shows the assumed decrease in land yield upon approaching this limit – it represents counteracting forces in the market penetration of BLF/BGF due to entry into less productive lands and competition with food production. The initial cost of BLF is determined by the initial assumptions for capital-output-ratios and land use prices, and is, in combination with the learning coefficient and the cumulated production in the year in which learning is supposed to start, determining the cost development of BLF. %)GHSOHWLRQFRVWPXOWLSOLHULPSRUWDQWUHJLRQV PXOWLSOLHU@PXOWLSOLHU 20 15 10 5 Canada USA Central & South America Western Africa Southern Africa OECD Europe Eastern Europe Former USSR South Asia East asia South East Asia Oceania 0 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 IUDFWLRQXVHGRISRWHQWLDOSURGXFWLRQ )LJXUH7KHGHSOHWLRQPXOWLSOLHUXVHGIRUELRIXHOVLQGLFDWLQJZLWKZKLFKIDFWRUWKHFDSLWDO RXWSXWUDWLRLVPXOWLSOLHG6RXUFH5HJLRQDOFXUYHVIURP,0$*(7(6JOREDOFXUYHVGHVFULEHG LQ+RRJZLMN 7KH*DVHRXV)XHO*)PRGHO Basically, the GF-model has the same set-up as the LF-model. The only difference is that the capital investments for transport and upgrading are different and that no distinction is made between various grades (like HLF and LLF for liquid fuels). As in the LF-model, there are exploration and exploitation processes, a capacity-related price mechanism and an alternative, biomass-based fuel referred to as BGF. Because of these similarities, the model is not discussed in any further detail here. In the implementation, some differences between oil and gas showed up. First, the natural gas exploration and exploitation cycle started later in all regions; hence, the depletion and learning behaviour is different. Secondly, quite a few parts of the natural gas system are intricately related to the oil system. For instance, much gas is produced as associated gas. A third difference is that gas transport is much more expensive than oil (product) transport which has to be reflected in the over-all Capital-Output Ratio. The combination of these factors cause,
RIVM report 461502024 page 105 of 188 amongst others, that flaring of natural gas still accounts for an estimated 10% of world production although it has declined significantly in the last 4-5 decades. One reason for this is that the need for capital-intensive transport systems – sometimes in politically risky regions - is an obstacle to opening up markets. 5HVRXUFHEDVH As for crude oil, we have used estimates of the size of regional conventional and unconventional gas resources based on Rogner, 1997 (7DEOH). 7DEOH1DWXUDO*DVUHVRXUFHVDFFRUGLQJWR5RJQHU Resource size (EJ) Conventional gas resources A Proved recoverable 5393 B Estimated Additional 4685 C Add. Speculative 6431 D Enhanced Recovery 2324 Coalbed methane, tight E Recoverable Reserves 5652 formation gas, clathrates etc. F Resources 10802 G Add. Occurrences I 16162 H Add .Occurrences II 785439 EJ 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1 CAN 2 USA 3 CAM 4 SAM 5 N AFR 6 W AFR 7 E AFR 8 S AFR 9 OECD Eur 10 East Eur Region 11 CIS 12 MidEast 13 India+ 14 China+ 15 SEA 16 Oceania 17 Japan UnCG: Additional II UnCG: Additional I UnCG: Resources UnCG: Recoverable NG: Enhanced recovery NG: Add. speculative NG: Est. additional NG: Prov. Rec )LJXUH5HJLRQDOQDWXUDOJDVUHVRXUFHVDVDVVXPHGLQ7,0(5EDVHGRQ5RJQHU As for oil, the recourses have been desaggregated to the regional level of the <strong>TIMER</strong> model. Both 7DEOH and )LJXUH show the dominance of non-conventional gas resources in the total. The question of these resources can and will ever be exploited is, however, still open. Conventional natural gas resources are much smaller in size – and in fact, slightly smaller than the available conventional oil resources.
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Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

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