Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

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page 52 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 2YHUYLHZRIWKH(3*PRGHO The EPG model of TIMER simulates the electricity generation by distinguishing four capital stocks associated with one or more out of five alternative inputs. The capital stocks represent electric power generating capacity: hydropower (H), fuel-combustion based (referred to as Thermal, T) with either solid, liquid or gaseous fuels, and two different capital stocks for nonthermal electricity, i.e. nuclear energy (NU) and renewables (NR). Combined Heat Power (CHP) is currently not modelled separately. Instead the heat demand is added to electricity demand, assuming higher possible generation efficiencies. The model takes into account the limitations of each fuel type - for instance with regard to its ability to function as base and peak load supply. )LJXUHgives an overview of the model. Electricity demand is an input from the TIMER ED model and used to calculate the required production. For each capital stock, costs are calculated; the investment and fuel use decisions are governed by a small set of operating rules. The resulting required solid fuel, liquid fuel and gaseous fuel inputs are inputs for the respective supply models. 7,0(5(OHFWULF3RZHU*HQHUDWLRQ(3*PRGHO gaseous fuel solid fuel 7 'ORVVHV liquid fuel HOHFWULFLW\ fuel-price based market share allocation system operating rules elec demand ÃIRVVILUHGÃ0:H QRQIRVVÃ0:H K\GURÃ0:H elec-cost based market share allocation planned expansion decisions/exogen LQYHVWPHQWVÃÇ required expansion IXHOÃVXSSO\ÃFDSLWDOÃÇ )LJXUH2YHUYLHZRIWKH(3*PRGHO 5,90%G9 (OHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQDQGFDSDFLW\ In the ED-model the secondary electricity demand SElD is calculated for region r and sector s (cf. Eqn. 3.1, j=elec). The net electricity demand is converted into Gross Electricity Demand GElD: *(O' = ∑ 6(' * (1 + 7'/) ) *(1 + 28/) ) * )&) + 176 V2 GJe/yr (4.1) V
RIVM report 461502024 page 53 of 188 Here, TDLF is the Transmission & Distribution Loss Factor, OULF the Own Use Loss Factor, FCF the Financial Constraint Factor. NTS is the net trade flow, i.e. import minus export and read as an exogenous scenario. The FCF allows the simulation of the system if less capital is available than is required. The TDLF and OULF are estimated from historical time-series. The NTS is based on historic data in 1970-1995 period 30 . We have simplified the short-term operation of the system by assuming that gross demand is generated in two fractions : base-load and peak-load, i.e. a two-block load duration curve representation. The fraction of gross demand generated in base-load is an exogenous input (indicated with FracBL). Four categories of electricity producing capital stock are distinguished to generate electricity 31 : • hydro-electric (H), which is installed according to an exogenous time-path towards a finite hydropower potential; • thermal electric (T), which can be fuelled by solid, liquid or gaseous fuels, assuming fuelspecific conversion efficiencies and investment cost time-paths for each fuel; • nuclear electric (NU), based nuclear fission/fusion heat assuming specific investment costs to be related to cumulated output (in terms of technology development and depletion); and • non-thermal renewable electric (NR) which represents solar, wind, geothermal and other renewable electricity generation modes, and for which we assume specific investment costs to be related to cumulated output (in terms of technology development) and annual production (depletion). It should be noted here that the index T for thermal refers to all options based on combustion of either fossil or biomass-derived fuel. In TIMER model results, the results for nuclear and nonthermal renewables are not always shown separately but aggregated as non-thermal electricity (N). No distinction is made between centrally and decentrally operated power stations. The total producing stock ECap is given by the sum of the different capital forms (ECap H + ECap T + ECap NU + ECap NR ). Each of the four capital stocks is assumed to depreciate at a rate of ECap k /TLT k with TLT k the technical lifetime of stock k, and to produce a certain output of electricity (in GJe) per unit of capacity (MWe). This output is determined by how the system is operated and is expressed in the load factor of stock i, LF i . This load factor is defined analogously to the system load factor : LF k = EProd k /(ß * ECap k ) and EProd i the actual production of stock k and ß=8760 * 3.6 GJe/MWe.yr 32 . Total annual electricity production equals EProd = Σ k EProd k (k=H, T, NU, NR). We assume that hydro-electric and non-thermal capacity (NU + NR) will mostly operate in base-load. For hydro, a scenario parameter determines how much of the capacity can be used for peakload (using storage facilities); for non-thermal capacity, the share of capacity used for peak-load depends on the actual demand for peakload electricity – and the available supply by means of thermal capacity 33 . The baseload production of hydro and non-thermal capacity is determined by the time-dependent load factors BLF H , BLF NU and BLF NR . Assuming that 30 Regional electricity trade is, at least at present, only an important factor between the regions Canada and USA. Therefore, we decided not to incorporate an explicit trade model, as for solid, liquid and gaseous fuels but simply base electricity trade on exogeneous scenarios. 31 Combined-heat-and-power (CHP) units are discussed in the Appendix to this chapter; it is not yet implemented in TIMER. 32 One year has 8760 hours; 1 MWe producing during 1 hour generates 1 MWhe or 3.6 GJe. 33 For the world at large, this is not unrealistic; for smaller regions resources like hydro- and windpower with seasonal variations cannot be simulated accurately in this way.
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Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

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