Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

page 132 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 conditions (allowance of capitalism in a communistic country) led to a drastic economic and technological catching-up. So, by assuming scenario for, γ[r], transformation factor we are able to mimic such developments. If γ is equal to 0 then there is no catching up to the technological frontier. In case of high values, the region will rapidly catch-up its technology to the level of the technological frontier. We will assume γ[r] to be a scenario variable representing the ability to catching up knowledge, but we can also relate γ to scenarios of the WorldScan model (CPB, 1999a) in which the transformation factor is estimated for different sectors. However, we are interested in more detailed analyses of the energy sector which makes the scenarios of Worldscan not a perfect fit for our goals. Now, the catching-up is formulated as γ LOG( { TL r (t -1)/TF(t)} LCr (t) = (7.13) S *4 U With p being the learning exponent (equal to –log(π)/log(2)) and Q the cumulative production in region r. The experience level after technology transfer is given by: ([S/HYHO = 4 + /& (7.14) U U U Note that the regions itself learn due to the production of fuels, and can stimulate the learning (of alternative fuels) by R&D programs. The technology transfers (depending on the value of γ), however, will cause the fact that other regions may benefit from the early investments of the pioneer region. In the next Chapter some dynamic characteristics of the technology transfer module are discussed. &DOLEUDWLRQ In the calibration of the TIMER model, we have assumed technology transfer to be zero. Implicitly, technology transfer might have been taken into account by the different progress ratios used for different regions. In most of our scenarios, technology transfer is set at small, but non-zero levels.
RIVM report 461502024 page 133 of 188 7,0(5(PLVVLRQ0RGHO7(0 ,QWURGXFWLRQ This Chapter describes the TIMER Emission model (TEM). The objective of the TEM model is to calculate the regional energy-and industrial related emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), carbon monoxide (CO), nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), and sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ). In addition the model simulates also the emissions of the halocarbons, i.e. CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs etc. The model consists of two submodules: the energy-emission- and the industry-emission module, which calculate the energy- and the industrial related emissions of the greenhouse gases and other compounds. The TEM model replaces the original energy-industry emission model of the EIS model of IMAGE 2.1 (Vries HWDO, 1994; Alcamo HWDO, 1998). The methodology used is similar as in the original version, and recently updated with the following elements: (i) emission factors for the different energy sectors and energy carriers for the period 1970- 1995 are based on aggregated data from EDGAR 2.0 (Olivier HWDO, 1999); (ii) accounting for the time pathway of surface and deep coal mining, associated with coal mining emissions of CH 4 ; (iii) The distinction of liquid fuel into HLF and LLF; (iv) the explicit inclusion of the following new energy sectors (compared to the IMAGE 2.1 version): marine bunkers (notably for CO 2 and SO 2 ), gas flaring associated with oil production (CO 2 ) and feedstock use (CO 2 ) , and the distinction between surface and underground coal production (CH 4 ); (v) the spatial scale is now extended to the 17 regions; (vi) an update of the base year to 1995; (vii) the inclusion of the three groups of greenhouse gases, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ); (viii) the inclusion of the 1995-2100 trends of the inclusion of the technological improvements and mitigation/abatement strategies of the emission factors as used for the development of the latest IPCC SRES scenarios, in line with the narratives. (ix) an updated methodology for the calculation of the energy SO 2 emissions by combining regional fuel consumption figures with data on fuel properties, in particular the sulphur content of coal and oil, ash retention characteristics of each fuel and combustion process, and the level of emissions controls in each sector. The TEM model consists of two submodels: energy-emissions submodel and the industryemissions submodel. (QHUJ\(PLVVLRQVVXEPRGHO The EnergyEmissions submodel calculates the regional energy-related emissions of the three major greenhouse gases: CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O, and the acidifying compounds: NO x and SO 2 , as well as the ozone precursors: CO and NMVOC. The main input forms the energy end-use consumption, energy consumption by electric generation and the total energy production as simulated by the TIMER energy demand and supply submodel, as described in the previous Chapters. The module itself applies emission factors to the regional energy consumed and produced per energy carrier in each energy sector to compute the energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.
Page 1 and 2:
RIVM report 461502024 2001 7KH7DUJH
Page 3 and 4:
RIVM report 461502024 page 3 of 188
Page 5 and 6:
Page 7 and 8:
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Page 53 and 54:
Page 55 and 56:
Page 57 and 58:
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82: RIVM report 461502024 page 81 of 18
Page 131: RIVM report 461502024 page 131 of 1
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
show all

Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?