Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

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page 60 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 7DEOH0RGHOYDULDEOHVXVHGIRUKLVWRULFDOFDOLEUDWLRQIRU(3*PRGHO0RGHO SDUDPHWHUV VHH7DEOHDUHYDULHGWRJHWWKHEHVWILWEHWZHHQVLPXODWHGDQGKLVWRULFDOWLPHVHULHV6HH $SSHQGL[$IRUGDWDVRXUFHV 9DULDEOH 6XEVFULSW 'HVFULSWLRQ 8QLW'RPDLQ ElProd r (Gross) Electricity Production GJe/yr ECap r,H/T/N Electric power generating capacity MWe TEFuel r,m Fuel for Electricity generation GJ/yr ElCost/Price r Cost/Price of electricity $/GJ CH r,CHP Heat delivered by Combined Heat GJ/yr Power schemes 7DEOH 0RGHO SDUDPHWHUVV XVHG IRU KLVWRULFDO FDOLEUDWLRQ DQG LI LQ EROG DOVR IRU VFHQDULR UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ IRU (3*PRGHO 3DUDPHWHUV DUH YDULHG DURXQG D GHIDXOW YDOXH ZLWKLQ D FHUWDLQ GRPDLQ 9DULDEOH 6XEVFULSW 'HVFULSWLRQ 8QLW'RPDLQ GElD r Gross Electricity Demand (historical) TDLF+OULF r Transmission & Distribution Loss Factor + Own Use Loss Factor; for CHP function of penetration η rm thermal efficiency of T-capacity using fuel category m PT rm Premium Factor for fuel category m for Electricity from T-capacity Isp rH, rT, rN, rCHP specific Investment cost for power plant type k; for CHP function of penetration χ rs pricing factor between generation plus TD cost and sectoral price θ r share of N-capacity that can be used for heat supply (historical) 0.0
RIVM report 461502024 page 61 of 188 0.35 0.30 0.25 7'/) 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1971 1980 1995 Can USA Cam Sam NAfr WAfr EAfr SAfr WE EE FSU ME SAs EAs SEAs Oc Jap )LJXUH 7KH 7UDQVPLVVLRQ DQG 'LVWULEXWLRQ /RVV DQG 2ZQ 8VH IDFWRU 7'/)28/) (TQ +\GURSRZHU Calibrating the formulation for hydropower generation is rather simple. First, the potential hydropower capacity is assigned to each region (7DEOH ). Historical capacity c.q. scenario values are introduced as a fraction of this potential - thus, an exogenous time-path for installed hydropower capacity is introduced. This fraction is the variable used for calibration. Each MWe produces with a load-factor which may vary from year to year; its historical value is used to calculate electricity generation. 7DEOH gives an overview of the potential hydropower capacity and hydropower generation (Moreira and Poole, in Johansson, 1993). Available data on actual capacity indicates that the average load factor is in the range of 0.3-0.6. 7DEOH also indicates the potential capacity used in <strong>TIMER</strong>. For all regions we assume a technical lifetime of 100 years, whereas the specific investment costs range from 1500 to 3000 $/kWe (7DEOH). The differences reflect different endowments and utilisation rates. 1RQIXHOEDVHG1RQ7KHUPDO18DQG15SRZHUJHQHUDWLRQ Calibration for electricity from nuclear (NU) and renewable (NR) capacity is derived from the product of installed capacity and the load factor. Installed capacity on its turn results from the parameter settings for each region: i.e. 1) an exogenous RD&D program (that can force shares in investments above the shares set by the market formulation) and 2) changes in electricity generation costs that influence the cost-based competition. The latter is influenced by 1) a timedependent learning factor π and 2) depletion dynamics (insignificant for the calibration period but important in future simulations). The calibration has to be done in an iterative way.
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