Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

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page 106 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 For use in the <strong>TIMER</strong> model, the resources need again to be converted in long-term supply cost curves (without taking into account technology progress). On the basis of some additional assumptions, we have converted Rogner’s size and cost estimates into regional supply cost curves expressed in the functional GasDeplM. Additional information on (current) regional production costs have been taken from various sources, among which (Quast, 1997b; IEA, 1998b; Carson, 1997; IEA, 1999). The regional curves are shown in )LJXUH. From these one can derive the world supply cost curves for natural gas, shown in )LJXUH. The actual global aggregated curve in <strong>TIMER</strong> is more-or-less comparable to the curve of (Vries, 2000).The curve is determining the rate at which gas production costs may be expected to increase in a world without fuel trade barriers. The explanation is the same as with oil. Here, too, it should be noted that the simulated gas production costs may differ because we assume a decline in the capital-output ratio due to technical innovations and non-zero interregional transport costs 58 . Also, production costs are not equal to prices: market barriers, royalties and oligopolistic price formation all influence the actual market prices. - * Ç 6 ÃF Q WLR F X G UR 3 20 16 Ã8 12 WV V R 8 4 0 0 10 20 30 5HVRXUFHVÃ=- - * Ç 6 30 20 Ã8 WV V R ÃF Q WLR F 10 X G UR 3 0 0 50 100 150 200 5HVRXUFHVÃ=- Rogner, all Chakravorty et al. Rogner, all Chakravorty et al. De Vries et al. Matsuoka De Vries et al. Matsuoka Jap.Dev.Ass Jap.Dev.Ass )LJXUH &RVWVXSSO\ FXUYHV IRU QDWXUDO JDV DFFRUGLQJ WR 5RJQHU &KDNUDYRUW\ 9ULHV0DWVXRND 58 The importance of such innovations can be judged from recent estimates of the costs of off-shore oil production: an annual cost reduction of 7%/yr in the Mexican Gulf.
RIVM report 461502024 page 107 of 188 30 25 - * Ç 20 6 Ã8 WV V R 15 ÃF Q WLR F X G 10 UR 3 5 0 Middle East China West. Europe CIS USA Central Am. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 &XPXODWLYHÃ5HVRXUFHÃ(- Oceania Canada South Am. Canada USA Central America South America North Africa West Africa East Africa South Africa Western Europe Central Europe CIS West Asia South Asia East Asia South East Asia Oceania Japan )LJXUH$VVXPHGUHJLRQDOJDVVXSSO\FRVWFXUYHH[SUHVVHGDVWKHIDFWRUZLWKZKLFKWKH &DSLWDOB2XWSXW5DWLRLVPXOWLSOLHGRQGHSOHWLRQ *DVSURGXFWLRQ Similar to oil, we use for the natural gas supply parameter estimates from several previous analyses. Some parameters are constant and the same for all regions: • the Desired Gross Margin (20%), • the discount/interest rate (10%), • the technical life time of capital stocks (15 years), • the economic life time of capital stocks (5 years), • the technically maximum rate at which reserves can be exploited (15%), • the Desired Reserve Production rate (30 years). Other parameters are region-specific as indicated in 7DEOH. %*)VXSSO\. The BGF-formulation is similar to the one for BLF, with a number of parameters constant and equal for all regions. BLF and BGF are each having their own cost determinants, such as learning behaviour. However, the depletion curves are for BLF and BGF together, that is, we use the sum of BLF and BGF production to estimate the yield decrease which is then applied to both. All parameters have been set equal to those of BLF, with two main exceptions: • the Capital-Output-Ratio for upgrading biomass into bio-gaseous fuels is slightly lower (65 US$/GJ); • there have been introduced no historically forced market shares / demonstration projects as for BLF.
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