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page 62 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 7DEOH'DWDRQK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQDQGWHFKQLFDOSRWHQWLDO(TQVDQG Potential Production Capacity Load factor Investments in use 1971 1980 1995 1995 1995 Initial value GWe PJ PJ PJ Fraction Fraction $/kWe Can 164 585 904 1207 0.37 0.62 3000 USA 173 949 1004 1131 0.54 0.40 3000 Cam 56 63 85 156 0.33 0.30 2000 Sam 509 248 692 1621 0.18 0.60 2000 NAfr 23 25 42 42 0.20 0.32 2000 WAfr 253 33 55 84 0.04 0.30 2000 EAfr 101 3 8 19 0.02 0.30 2000 SAfr 101 18 104 47 0.05 0.30 2000 WE 365 1140 1429 1625 0.45 0.35 3500 EE 48 99 197 191 0.54 0.25 3000 FSU 278 454 665 861 0.25 0.41 1500 ME 18 23 76 184 0.64 0.63 10000 SAs 190 118 207 365 0.15 0.47 2000 EAs 481 166 308 811 0.13 0.48 2000 SEAs 163 27 35 142 0.08 0.33 2000 Oc 20 89 115 155 0.68 0.39 3500 Jap 40 303 318 296 0.98 0.30 3500 Source: Resources are based on the UNDP (2000); in combination with (Moreira, 1993). Production data from IEA (1998). 7DEOH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQIRUVRPHNH\WLPHGHSHQGHQWV\VWHPYDULDEOHV(TQV (3*0RGHO 7KHUPDO7 +\GUR+ 1RQ7KHUPDO17 7 ' Economic LifeTime (yr) 12 12 12 30 <strong>Technical</strong> LifeTime (yr) 25 50 25 40 Interest Rate (%) 10 10 10 10 Construction delay (yr) 3 5 8 na TE-NTE logit parameter 4 TE fuels logit parameter 2 Learning starts up with an initial value of the specific investment costs, Isp N,init . An additional problem is that the ‘NR’ technology used in the model, is in reality a combination of all kind of renewables, which means that somehow data for solar, wind etc needs to be combined. The first step is to gauge π NT to more-or-less the scarcely available time-series for generation costs of nuclear and a combination of solar/wind. Based on the data from various sources (IEA, 2000, WEA, 2000) we have decided to use a learning rate for NR of 0.8. For NU, we have a historic learning rate of 1.0 (a result of technology development on one hand, and stricter regulation on the other). Choices for some other important parameters are shown in 7DEOH Available data on current generation costs based on nuclear power typically varies between 2000-3000 US$/kW, making nuclear slightly more expensive than coal-based and natural gas based alternatives in almost all countries (IEA, 1998a). For solar, wind and other renewables considerable ranges for generation costs can be found – depending, for instance, on the site, country and technologies applied. Generation costs for PV typically vary around 5000-10000
RIVM report 461502024 page 63 of 188 US$/kW and for wind between 1000 and 2000 US$/kW. Based on the assumed model settings, )LJXUH shows the results for NR technology in the USA compared to the data for PV and windmills as indicated in the WEA (it should be noted that the WEA data indicates cuttingedge technology, while the model results indicated average production costs). 7DEOH'DWDRQQXFOHDUDQGUHQHZDEOHJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\FI(TQ Investments ,VS 1LQLW Learning ratio (π 17 Load factor Forced fraction in total investments $/kWe $/kWe Fraction Fraction Fraction Fraction Fraction Fraction Initial Initial 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 NU NR NU NR NU NR NU NR Can 3500 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.15 0.00 USA 3500 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.18 0.01 Cam 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.03 0.04 Sam 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.26 0.00 NAfr 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.00 0.00 WAfr 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.00 0.00 EAfr 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.00 0.45 SAfr 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.08 0.00 WE 3500 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.43 0.00 EE 3500 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.26 0.00 FSU 3500 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.40 0.00 ME 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.00 0.00 SAs 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.07 0.00 EAs 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.30 0.00 SEAs 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.00 0.05 Oc 3800 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.00 0.02 Jap 3500 7800 1 0.8 0.65 0.53 0.32 0.00 100000 : N Ç 10000 1000 100 10 <strong>Model</strong> result NR PV - WEA, 2000 Windmills - WEA, 2000 1 1 10 100 1000 10000 &XPXODWLYHÃFDSDFLW\Ã0: )LJXUH*HQHUDWLRQFRVWVIRU15WHFKQRORJ\LQWKH86$FRPSDUHGWRKLVWRULFDOGDWDFI (TQ Historically both NU and NR technologies are used for electricity generation even when their costs are higher than the competitive thermal plants (T) for each region we have introduced an RD&D program (as fraction of total investments in electric power capacity). The required values are also indicated in 7DEOH. The values for NU vary between 0 and 40% (indicating government support for nuclear power programmes); for NU the values are typically between 0
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