Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

page 62 of 188 RIVM report 461502024
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Potential Production
Capacity Load factor Investments
in use
1971 1980 1995 1995 1995 Initial value
GWe PJ PJ PJ Fraction Fraction $/kWe
Can 164 585 904 1207 0.37 0.62 3000
USA 173 949 1004 1131 0.54 0.40 3000
Cam 56 63 85 156 0.33 0.30 2000
Sam 509 248 692 1621 0.18 0.60 2000
NAfr 23 25 42 42 0.20 0.32 2000
WAfr 253 33 55 84 0.04 0.30 2000
EAfr 101 3 8 19 0.02 0.30 2000
SAfr 101 18 104 47 0.05 0.30 2000
WE 365 1140 1429 1625 0.45 0.35 3500
EE 48 99 197 191 0.54 0.25 3000
FSU 278 454 665 861 0.25 0.41 1500
ME 18 23 76 184 0.64 0.63 10000
SAs 190 118 207 365 0.15 0.47 2000
EAs 481 166 308 811 0.13 0.48 2000
SEAs 163 27 35 142 0.08 0.33 2000
Oc 20 89 115 155 0.68 0.39 3500
Jap 40 303 318 296 0.98 0.30 3500
Source: Resources are based on the UNDP (2000); in combination with (Moreira, 1993).
Production data from IEA (1998).
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Economic LifeTime (yr) 12 12 12 30
Technical LifeTime (yr) 25 50 25 40
Interest Rate (%) 10 10 10 10
Construction delay (yr) 3 5 8 na
TE-NTE logit parameter 4
TE fuels logit parameter 2
Learning starts up with an initial value of the specific investment costs, Isp N,init . An additional
problem is that the ‘NR’ technology used in the model, is in reality a combination of all kind of
renewables, which means that somehow data for solar, wind etc needs to be combined. The first
step is to gauge π NT to more-or-less the scarcely available time-series for generation costs of
nuclear and a combination of solar/wind. Based on the data from various sources (IEA, 2000,
WEA, 2000) we have decided to use a learning rate for NR of 0.8. For NU, we have a historic
learning rate of 1.0 (a result of technology development on one hand, and stricter regulation on
the other). Choices for some other important parameters are shown in 7DEOH
Available data on current generation costs based on nuclear power typically varies between
2000-3000 US$/kW, making nuclear slightly more expensive than coal-based and natural gas
based alternatives in almost all countries (IEA, 1998a). For solar, wind and other renewables
considerable ranges for generation costs can be found – depending, for instance, on the site,
country and technologies applied. Generation costs for PV typically vary around 5000-10000